France is heading into another tense political showdown as the government struggles to secure enough support for a major social security budget vote that could determine the stability of its public finances and the survival of Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu’s minority government.
French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu faces a crucial vote on the social security budget on Tuesday — a test that could heighten political turbulence and raise fresh doubts about how France will plug major gaps in its public finances.
The National Assembly will vote on the legislation setting welfare, health and pension spending for 2026. The bill also reflects concessions Lecornu’s minority government has made to opposition parties in an effort to stay in power.
But the outcome is far from certain. Earlier votes on parts of the bill passed only narrowly, revealing divisions both between parties and within previously supportive parliamentary groups.
High stakes for France’s finances
The government warns that rejecting the bill would push the social security deficit to around €30 billion in 2026, compared with closer to €20 billion if the plan is approved. Social security spending makes up more than 40 percent of France’s total public expenditure.
A rejection would also deal a major blow to Lecornu’s effort to restore political stability by giving parliament greater control over financial legislation. Last year’s elections left the National Assembly fractured, complicating law-making and contributing to frequent changes in government.
‘A very high-risk vote’
“It’s a very high-risk vote,” Benjamin Morel, a professor at Université Paris 2 Panthéon-Assas, told Europe1 radio on Monday. “If you don’t have a majority on the social security budget, on the state budget it seems even more improbable.”
Lecornu has ruled out using article 49.3 — a mechanism that allows governments to bypass parliamentary votes — and has accepted numerous amendments to the budget proposals.
Political tensions rise
The bill faced a knife-edge vote on Tuesday, with Lecornu still trying to secure Socialist support. His willingness to suspend President Emmanuel Macron’s pension reform has frustrated centrists and conservatives, further clouding the bill’s prospects.
Lawmakers began reviewing the text on Tuesday afternoon, only days after narrowly approving the tax component. Asked if the government would win the vote, Budget Minister Amelie de Montchalin said: “I cannot say.” She suggested more funding for hospitals could be offered to sway hesitant groups, including the Greens.
Socialist leader Olivier Faure said his party may back the bill after securing concessions, including delaying Macron’s 2023 pension reform until after the 2027 presidential election.
Opposition on both flanks
Both the far right and hard left are expected to oppose the bill. Traditional government allies — the centrist Horizon group and the conservative Republicains — may abstain or vote against it, arguing that Lecornu conceded too much by freezing pension reform and accepting tax increases to win over the Socialists.
A wider budget crisis looms
Lecornu warned that failure to pass the bill could jeopardise the entire 2025 public sector budget, with time running short before year-end and the government possibly forced into stopgap financing.
France is aiming to bring its budget deficit — one of the euro zone’s largest — below 5 percent of GDP next year. But manoeuvring space is limited in a parliament where no party commands a majority.
A pattern of instability
Budget battles have intensified since Macron lost his majority in last year’s snap election, triggering instability that has toppled three governments. A dispute over last year’s budget brought down Michel Barnier’s cabinet through a no-confidence vote.
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