As the city lay in darkness amid a blackout, US Delta Force personnel swept into Caracas in helicopters, stormed the compound where President Nicolas Maduro had retired for the night, and whisked him away with barely any casualties.
Despite the scale of the operation, only one US helicopter was hit and a handful of personnel were injured.
But American firepower was not the only reason for the stunning success of the mission. Independent observers have noted that the minimal resistance from the Venezuelan military points to a secret deal between elements of the regime and the Donald Trump administration that enabled Maduro’s seamless extraction.
Low-flying helicopters, as seen in videos, do not require sophisticated air defence systems but can be taken down by shoulder-fired systems or even guns, but there was no such activity, noted Brigadier (Retired) Anil Raman, who heads the US studies programme at the Takshashila Institution.
“All available evidence suggests the Venezuelan military largely avoided any confrontation with US forces. Even if air defence systems were suppressed, Venezuela holds around 5,000 shoulder-fired Igla systems and only was reportedly deployed to no effect. Everything points to some sort of deal between the Trump administration and elements of the Venezuelan government involving Vice President Delcy Rodríguez and the military,” said Raman.
Such an assessment has been bolstered by Trump’s de facto recognition of Delcy as Maduro’s successor. She has already taken over as interim leader.
Moreover, Delcy and her brother, Jorge Rodriguez, who serves as President of the National Assembly, held secret negotiations with the Trump administration last year that were mediated by Arab partners, according to the Miami Herald.
Now it appears the Rodriguez siblings went beyond the mandate and negotiated a deal for themselves instead of one for their boss.
Venezuelan military’s silence speaks volumes
The US mission, dubbed Operation Absolute Resolve, involved 150 aircraft —including fighter planes, bombers, and drones— that suppressed Venezuela’s Russian-made air defence systems and radars, according to General Dan Caine, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
But, as Raman noted, the suppression of Venezuela’s S-300, Pantsir, and Buk-M2 systems does not explain why ground forces did not challenge US helicopters.
To be fair, there was “heavy” fire at one point that hit a helicopter and injured 12 personnel, according to The New York Times.
But such a response is nowhere close to what should have been mounted considering the Trump administration had telegraphed its intention to attack Venezuela for months with the deployment of more than 10,000 personnel, several warships, and dozens of warplanes around the country.
The Atlantic reported that the Trump administration had at least tacit support from the Venezuelan military.
“An action like this would not be possible without significant help or at least intentional ‘self-restraint’ from the local military,” an adviser to the Department of Defense and a special forces veteran told The Atlantic.
Separately, The New York Times reported that the Trump administration had internally chosen Vice President Delcy as Maduro’s successor.
“I’ve been watching her career for a long time, so I have some sense of who she is and what she’s about. I’m not claiming that she’s the permanent solution to the country’s problems, but she’s certainly someone we think we can work with at a much more professional level than we were able to do with him,” a senior US official told The Times.
The deal that likely doomed Maduro
As per the Miami Herald, Vice President Delcy and her brother, Jorge, discussed two proposals with the Trump administration.
Under both proposals, which were endorsed by Maduro, he would have stepped down and made way for a transitional government, according to the Herald.
The first proposal would have provided him security guarantees and allowed him to stay in Venezuela whereas the second proposal gave him the option of exile in Turkey or Qatar, as per the newspaper.
But eventually, it appears that Delcy and Jorge entered into an arrangement where they brought the military to their side and enabled the Trump administration to capture Maduro and whisk him away to the United States. None of the two proposals included his arrest.
Raman, however, noted that the deal is not a guarantee that the arrangement will last or succeed.
“There are three broad possibilities. Firstly, Vice President Rodriguez could continue to rule Venezuela with the military’s support and that will ensure some stability and continuity. Secondly, the opposition forces of Maria Corina Machado could get a role that could lead to tensions and violence as the military has so far strongly opposed her. Thirdly, the country could descend into factional or guerrilla violence,” said Raman.
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