Vice President JD Vance warns that an Iranian nuclear weapon would trigger an immediate Saudi response as the US and Iran prepare for high-stakes, tense negotiations in Oman this Friday.
Iran and the United States are set to resume nuclear negotiations in Muscat, Oman this Friday, raising hopes for diplomacy while keeping regional anxieties high.
Earlier reports suggested the talks might collapse due to disagreements over location and agenda, notably Iran’s reluctance to discuss its ballistic missile program. Despite the uncertainty, both sides confirmed the meeting, signalling a willingness to explore dialogue even as President Donald Trump maintained a hardline posture.
Amidst this diplomatic friction, US Vice President JD Vance has issued a stark warning regarding the regional implications of a nuclear-armed Tehran, suggesting that an Iranian breakthrough would trigger an immediate and uncontrollable arms race, specifically involving Saudi Arabia.
Regional nuclear race: A growing concern
The potential for a nuclear arms race in West Asia has drawn renewed attention following warnings from US Senator JD Vance. “If Iran gets nuclear weapons today, Saudi Arabia will have them the next day,” Vance said, highlighting the domino effect that could destabilise an already volatile region. Saudi Arabia has invested heavily in missile and defence technology and is likely to accelerate its nuclear ambitions should Iran acquire weapons-grade capabilities.
Iran’s uranium enrichment programme, now approaching 60% purity for the first time outside its declared civilian needs, remains a central concern. Under the 2015 nuclear deal, Iran was permitted enrichment up to 3.67% and a limited stockpile.
Its current capacity far exceeds that, though intelligence agencies indicate Iran has not yet weaponised its program. Nonetheless, the combination of high enrichment levels and political instability, intensified by nationwide protests and internal crackdowns, creates a volatile security environment.
Israel’s previous strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, coupled with Tehran’s loss of regional allies such as Lebanon’s Hezbollah and the weakening of Syria under Bashar al-Assad, have only amplified the stakes. These developments have prompted calls for a broader diplomatic approach while maintaining credible deterrence. Analysts warn that unchecked nuclear progress in Iran could trigger parallel programs across Gulf states, leading to a costly and dangerous arms race.
Balancing diplomacy and military pressure
The Oman talks reflect a delicate balancing act. While Trump and his envoys advocate for tough demands, including curbs on ballistic missiles and regional influence, Iran insists that missile programs are a sovereign defensive right. Past attempts at negotiations, including letters from Trump to Khamenei and multiple rounds of indirect diplomacy have produced temporary pauses but no lasting agreements.
The US is pushing to incorporate regional security issues into nuclear discussions, framing them as inseparable from non-proliferation objectives. Televised statements from officials indicate that Washington is prepared for both diplomacy and military contingencies, a dual-track strategy aimed at preventing further escalation. Meanwhile, Oman’s mediation highlights the importance of neutral actors in keeping dialogue channels open, particularly as tensions rise amid domestic unrest in Iran.
As Friday’s meeting approaches, the international community watches closely. Success could offer a temporary de-escalation and framework for renewed talks, but failure may accelerate proliferation incentives across West Asia, with countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE potentially pursuing rapid nuclear development in response. For analysts like Vance, the message is stark: the window for preventing a regional nuclear race is narrowing, and each decision by Tehran or Washington carries ripple effects across the West Asia.
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