As the clock ticked toward the midnight expiration of the world’s last major nuclear arms control agreement, a glimmer of diplomatic hope emerged from Abu Dhabi. High-level negotiators from the United States and Russia are reportedly closing in on a provisional deal to observe the core tenets of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) beyond its February 5, 2026, deadline.
According to an Axios report citing multiple sources familiar with the talks, negotiations have been under way for the past 24 hours in Abu Dhabi to find a way for both sides to continue observing the treaty’s ceilings on deployed strategic nuclear weapons. Both the countries are reportedly closing in on a deal to observe the New START nuclear arms control treaty beyond its expiration.
New START, signed in 2010 and extended once in 2021 for five years by then US President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin, limits each side to 1,550 deployed strategic warheads and caps launchers and missiles. Its lapse would leave, for the first time in more than five decades, no binding restraints on the US and Russian nuclear arsenals.
Last pillar of Cold War-era arms control
New START is the final surviving agreement from a long lineage of arms control treaties dating back to the Cold War. Its expiration has raised alarms among arms control experts and international bodies, who warn that the absence of limits and verification measures could fuel mistrust, miscalculation and accelerated weapons development.
The Axios report suggests that both sides are considering voluntarily observing the treaty’s limits for an additional period, potentially up to six months. However, it remains unclear whether such an arrangement would be legally codified or remain an informal political understanding.
The White House has declined to comment publicly on the discussions so far, underscoring the sensitivity of the talks. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov, meanwhile, confirmed that Moscow remains open to dialogue if Washington responds “constructively” to Russia’s proposal to continue abiding by New START limits.
“Listen, if there are any constructive replies, of course we will conduct a dialogue,” Peskov told reporters, framing Russia’s position as one of conditional engagement rather than unilateral restraint.
Any extension at this stage would not be a treaty renewal in the traditional sense. Under US law, New START cannot be formally extended again without Senate approval. Instead, a continuation would rely on executive decisions by both governments to voluntarily respect the existing ceilings, an arrangement that would lack enforcement and on-site verification mechanisms.
The New START discussions form part of a broader, if cautious, thaw in US-Russia contacts. On Thursday, the US military’s European Command said Washington and Moscow had agreed in Abu Dhabi to resume high-level military-to-military dialogue, a channel largely frozen since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
The choice of Abu Dhabi as a venue highlights the growing role of neutral or non-aligned actors in facilitating sensitive diplomacy at a time when traditional Western forums remain politically fraught.
Parallel diplomatic tracks are also visible on the Ukraine front. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said peace talks with Russia, backed by the United States, would continue in the near future after negotiators concluded a second round of discussions in Abu Dhabi. While no major breakthroughs have been announced, the synchronisation of nuclear and regional security talks underscores a recognition that strategic stability and geopolitical conflicts are deeply intertwined.
Analysts note that even a temporary continuation of New START’s limits could provide breathing space for broader negotiations, particularly on verification mechanisms and risk reduction measures that have eroded in recent years.
China factor complicates future arms control
The future of nuclear arms control remains clouded by Washington’s insistence that China be included in any new framework. US President Donald Trump, who spoke with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Wednesday, has repeatedly argued that a bilateral US-Russia model no longer reflects global nuclear realities.
China, however, has so far rejected calls to join trilateral negotiations, pointing to the stark disparity in nuclear stockpiles. Beijing is estimated to possess around 600 nuclear warheads, compared with roughly 4,000 each for the US and Russia, making it reluctant to accept constraints designed for vastly larger arsenals.
The White House said this week that Trump would decide the way forward on nuclear arms control and would “clarify on his own timeline”, offering no indication of whether Washington sees the potential New START stopgap as a bridge to a new deal or merely a temporary risk-management measure.
For now, the looming New START deadline has injected urgency into talks that many believed were moribund. Even an informal agreement to observe the treaty’s limits would mark a significant, if fragile, step toward preventing a return to unconstrained nuclear competition.
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