Donald Trump has been on a collision course with Iran since early January when the US president assured Iranians that “help is on its way” amid nationwide protests. And it seems that the moment has finally arrived with the US and Israel carrying out a joint operation — Israel has called it Operation Lion’s Roar, whereas America has dubbed it Operation Epic Fury — on Saturday (February 28).
On Saturday, allies — the US and Israel — launched a joint operation against Iran, with officials reporting that Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and President Masoud Pezeshkian were the main targets of the attacks. In turn, Iran has launched a barrage of missiles across Israel and other
US bases in West Asia.
That has prompted many to ask: what is Trump’s end game when it comes to Iran? Does Washington and Tel Aviv hope to eliminate Iran’s nuclear programme? Or is it about a regime change?
US-Israel strikes on Iran and its targets
The United States and Israel launched strikes on Iran on Saturday with an Israeli official saying Iran’s Supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and President Masoud Pezeshkian were both targeted but the result of the strikes was not clear.
In fact, some of the first strikes appeared to hit areas around the offices of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and Iranian media reported strikes nationwide, and smoke could be seen rising from the capital. So far, there has been no statement from Iran on the whereabouts of Khamenei. But a source with knowledge of the matter told Reuters that
Khamenei was not in Tehran and had been transferred to a secure location.
While the whereabouts of Khamenei remain unknown, an Iranian source said several senior commanders in Iran’s Revolutionary Guards and political officials had been killed.
Military sites in Kermanshah, Qum, Isfahan, Tabriz, Karaj and as well as at Iranian naval facilities in Kenarak in the south of the country were also targeted by the US and Israel.
The attack came after tensions soared in recent weeks as American warships moved into the region, and Trump said he wanted a deal to constrain Iran’s nuclear programme.
Trump and Netanyahu double down on regime change
Following the strikes, the leaders of both the US and Israel defended their actions, stating that the motive was to wipe out the leadership in Tehran and make way for a revolution.
Donald Trump in his address to the nation said, “For 47 years, the Iranian regime has chanted ‘Death to America’ and waged an unending campaign of bloodshed and mass murder, targeting the United States, our troops and the innocent people in many, many countries. Among the regime’s very first acts was to back a violent takeover of the US Embassy in Tehran, holding dozens of American hostages for 444 days. In 1983, Iran’s proxies carried out the marine barracks bombing in Beirut that killed 241 American military personnel.”
He further added that the “regime has armed, trained and funded terrorist militias that have soaked the earth with blood and guts. And it was Iran’s proxy, Hamas, that launched the monstrous October 7 attacks on Israel, slaughtering more than 1,000 innocent people, including 46 Americans, while taking 12 of our citizens hostage. It was brutal, something like the world has never seen before”.
Elaborating the purpose of the operation, Trump noted in his address, “For these reasons, the United States military is undertaking a massive and ongoing operation to prevent this very wicked, radical dictatorship from threatening America and our core national security interests… We will ensure that Iran does not obtain a nuclear weapon. It’s a very simple message. They will never have a nuclear weapon.
The US president also urged Iranians to rise up against their leadership, stating that he was backing them with “overwhelming strength and devastating force”.
“Now is the time to seize control of your destiny, and to unleash the prosperous and glorious future that is close within your reach. This is the moment for action. Do not let it pass,” Trump said in conclusion.
Even Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s statement spoke about regime change. “Our joint action will create the conditions for the courageous Iranian people to take their destiny into their own hands,” he said, adding: “The time has come for all sections of the people in Iran … to remove the yoke of tyranny… and bring a free and peace-loving Iran.”
Reasons US and Israel want a regime change
When Trump and Netanyahu speak of a regime change in Iran, they are looking at deposing 86-year-old
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. That’s because he has long embodied the Islamic Republic’s posture of defiance towards its enemies, chiefly the United States and Israel.
In power since 1989, Khamenei has been at the helm of affairs and overseen the steady advancement of Iran’s nuclear programme, framing uranium enrichment as a sovereign right. He has also been a staunch critic of the US as well as Israel, even calling the latter a “cancerous tumour”.
Following last year’s 12-day war, Israel’s Defence Minister Israel Katz had said that Khamenei “cannot continue to exist”. “A dictator like Khamenei who stands at the head of a state like Iran and has the horrible goal of destroying Israel – cannot continue to exist,” he said.
But Khamenei remains unfazed and defiant. Even amid negotiations with the US, the Iranian supreme leader cast a pessimistic tone, saying the Iranian nation “would not pledge allegiance to corrupt leaders like those who are in power in America today” based on religious beliefs.
The Ayatollah has also declined to let go of uranium enrichment and refuses to entertain discussion of Iran’s missile programme.
His hatred for Israel has also led him to call the Jewish nation a terrorist base. “Israel is not a country, but a terrorist base against the nation of Palestine and other Muslim nations,” he’s been quoted as saying, adding: Fighting this despotic regime is fighting oppression and terrorism, and (doing so) is everyone’s duty,” he added.
The huge cost of a regime change in Iran
While Trump and Netanyahu have pushed for a regime change, experts note that such a move could come at a huge cost. As the Atlantic Council reported, a possible regime change could trigger a number of spillover and destabilising effects on Gulf countries. This matters deeply for a US administration operating with a business centric foreign policy, which is underpinned by strong relationships with the Gulf countries.
There’s also no guarantees that the regime’s collapse will lead to a flowering of freedom in Iran. Experts fear that it could go the Syria way.
It seems Trump has taken a huge gamble. Whether it pays off or not, we shall have to wait and watch.
With inputs from agencies
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