After India’s purchase of Russian oil, will it be rice?
A new trade war between India and the United States is now a possibility after President Donald Trump indicated that he may introduce new tariffs on agricultural imports, especially on rice imports from India and fertiliser from Canada.
The US president’s remarks came while he was holding a meeting at the White House and he unveiled a multi-billion dollar farm relief package for American farmers, while sharpening his criticism of agricultural imports from India and other Asian suppliers.
We take a closer look at what Trump said on Indian rice exports to the US, the practice of dumping and much, much more.
Trump’s tariff threat over rice imports
US President Donald Trump met with Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins, lawmakers from farm states, and farmers on Monday at the White House during which he announced a
$12 billion aid package for US farmers.
It was during this meeting that the farmers present at the table pressed the US president to take a harder line against agricultural imports, noting that they were pushing domestic prices down. CEO of Louisiana-based Kennedy Rice Mill, Meryl Kennedy told Trump that she believed other countries were “dumping” rice into the United States.
“Which countries?” Trump asked.
#WATCH | US President Donald Trump asks the United States Secretary of the Treasury, Scott Bessent, “Why is India allowed to do that (“dumping rice into the US”)? They have to pay tariffs. Do they have an exemption on rice?”
United States Secretary of the Treasury, Scott Bessent… pic.twitter.com/75tKFYt37G
— ANI (@ANI) December 8, 2025
“India, Thailand, even China into Puerto Rico. Puerto Rico used to be one of the largest markets for rice, we haven’t shipped rice into Puerto Rico for years,” Kennedy said, adding that the president needed to “double down” on his tariffs.
Trump then noted, “They shouldn’t be dumping. I mean, I heard that, I heard that from others. You can’t do that,” before turning to US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and asking, “Why is India allowed to do that (“dumping rice into the US”)? They have to pay tariffs. Do they have an exemption on rice?”
Bessent told the US president, “No, sir. We’re still working on their trade deal.” Trump responded saying, “They should not be dumping (rice)… They cannot do that.”
Rice dumping, explained
But what is rice dumping that Trump and the farmers were talking about?
Rice dumping refers to the trade practice in which foreign countries sell rice to other nations at prices so low it harms domestic farmers. Many note that this practice can cause serious harm to national production in the importing country. Dumping is generally seen as an unfair trading practice.
In the most recent instance, US farmers have accused India of rice dumping with Meryl Kennedy telling Trump that this has been happening for years and did not start during the Trump administration. “But unfortunately, we’re seeing it in a much bigger way now.”
She also made reference to the WTO case against India in which countries led by the US accused it of providing its rice and wheat farmers a much higher level of support than is permissible under WTO rules. Last November, the US-led nations said India provided its rice and wheat farmers “significant market price support” both in terms of absolute values as well as a percentage of value of production.
India, at the time, hit back at the claims, saying that while it had exceeded the 10 per cent limit in the case of rice, it was a much smaller amount than what the US-led group accused it of.
Reality of India’s rice exports around the world and US
But are the US farmers’ claim of India rice dumping in the US true? Here’s what the numbers reveal.
India is the largest producer of rice and has a 28 per cent share of the global market. It is also the top exporter, with a 30.3 per cent share of global exports in 2024-2025, as per data provided by Indian Rice Exporters Federation (IREF).
But the US isn’t India’s main rice market. According to IREF, India exported 274,213 million tonnes of basmati rice worth $337.1 million to the US in FY25, making America the fourth-largest market for Indian basmati. Non-basmati shipments stood at 61,341 MT worth $54.6 million, placing the US as the 24th-largest market for that category.
West Asia remains the dominant destination for Indian rice, it added.
The IREF on the issue of rice dumping in the US also noted that exports to the US are strictly demand-driven and shipments are only made against advanced purchase orders. It said that US-grown rice is not a “like-for-like substitute” for Indian basmati due to differences in aroma, texture, elongation and flavour, noted NDTV.
Possible impact of tariffs on India’s rice imports to US
But what would the impact of Trump’s possible tariffs on Indian rice imports be?
Soon after the US president indicated more tariffs for India, shares of Indian rice exporters such KRBL and LT Foods declined up to seven per cent in early trading.
The IREF further noted that a higher tariff on rice exports to US — Indian rice exports already attract a tariff in the US — would eventually hurt American consumers.
Moreover, the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), an Indian think tank working in the field of trade, said the announcement made by Trump warning of higher tariffs appeared to be an election-season message to the farming community in the US.
The think tank said as per an ANI report, “Trump threatens to impose high tariffs on Indian rice. But the threat is politics, not policy.”
The GTRI noted that even if fresh duties are imposed, the impact on Indian exporters would be limited due to strong demand in other markets. However, higher tariffs would likely make rice costlier for American households that rely on Indian varieties.
With inputs from agencies
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