The anti-government protests in Iran have been escalating since December 28, with the
death toll crossing the 2,000 mark as of Tuesday.
Last month, shopkeepers in Iran took to the streets of Tehran to express their anger at another sharp decline in the value of the
Iranian currency, the rial, against the US dollar. While the country’s economy has been struggling due to international sanctions for years, the 12-day war between Israel and Iran, in which even the US got involved, affected the country significantly.
The protests soon began to gain momentum, with wider calls for political change, as crowds frequently chanted slogans against the country’s Supreme Leader,
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Some women were also spotted burning the Iranian supreme leader’s posters with cigarettes.
In an exclusive conversation with Firstpost,
Seyed Emamian, Assistant Professor at Tehran Polytechnic University of Technology, and co-founder of Governance and Policy Think Tank, noted that while the protesters are staging demonstrations on a “legitimate point”, the major challenge Iran is currently facing is “foreign intervention”. He also pointed out that protests in Iran are quite common and urged the country’s ruling regime to take concrete steps to recover the economy.
‘Legitimate concerns’
While speaking to Firstpost, Emamian emphasised that people of Iran are protesting on “legitimate points” but pointed out that foreign intervention in the country’s internal affairs has remained a concern. He also noted that while the country has been facing economic challenges due to international sanctions, what was different this time was the incompetence in dealing with these challenges.
“The demonstration started from a very legitimate point by criticising the incompetence of the bureaucratic system, particularly in managing the economic challenges of the country. Everyone knows that the economic situation in Iran has been very much affected by unilateral sanctions and coercive measures. They call it sanctions, mainly imposed by the US. But it’s not new,” he said.
He pointed out how, during former US President
Joe Biden’s time, the country was facing pressure policies. “From the government and policymakers’ standpoint, the challenges are not something new. So why are you less competent than before? From a comparative point of view, it is important to question the competency of the government and policymakers about having a limitation on inflation and particularly the devaluation of the Iranian rial,” he added.
Emamian pointed out that this time the Iranian central bank was unable to cap the level of devaluation of the rial. For several months, economic experts have been looking for a change, a very important change within the central bank. But the government had some extent of delay in changing the head of the central bank.
On January 1, while the protests were escalating, Iran appointed a new central bank governor following the resignation of the incumbent. President Masoud Pezeshkian’s Cabinet gave
Abdolnasser Hemmati the charge to lead the bank and bring the country out of the financial mess. Hemmati was replacing Mohammad Reza Farzin, who stepped down a day after large protests erupted across Tehran and other cities over the rapid depreciation of the rial.
Emamian noted that Hemmati led the country’s bank when Iran was facing maximum pressure from Trump’s first term in office. Hence, expressed optimism about him taking the charge again. “The people have the full right to expect from policymakers and government to be much more competent and much more careful about the economic situation in such a very challenging period of time,” he averred.
Concerns over foreign intervention
Emamian maintained that while protests are quite common in a diverse country like Iran, what has become concerning is the foreign intervention, especially from countries like Israel and the United States. “What is challenging now is a kind of foreign intervention and infiltration within the legitimate, rightful and peaceful demonstrations. I think it was very naive for someone like President Trump and some Israeli officials to say directly and publicly that they are in support of clashes amid peaceful demonstrations,” he told Firstpost.
“We need to be careful of being infiltrated or penetrated by foreign enemy agents. Everyone is not happy, not satisfied with the incompetence of the bureaucratic system and the economic administration, but at the same time, they still remember what happened to the country a few months ago (12-day war).”
“The Iranian society is very intelligent and smart, and they are politically aware of the situation, so they are going to have a kind of balanced reaction to the economic incompetence. At the same time, not to provide such an opportunity for enemies,” he furthered.
The Iranian professor claimed that the US is not looking to divide the country, but to bring about regime change, and the Iranians are careful about the issue, while having the “legitimate right to criticise the government”.
‘Iran might not be met with Venezuela’s fate’
The year 2026 started with the
US’s operation in Venezuela, in which the American forces captured the country’s President Nicolas Maduro and his wife, toppling the draconian government of an oil-rich country. When asked if Iran is concerned about the US’s attempt at regime change, Emamian emphasised that Iran might not face the same fate due to two reasons: its geographical location and its history.
He recalled how
Latin America has always been under the influence of the United States, and geographically, it is also in the American backyard, making such operations easier. “Military and coup intervention of the US is not something new for the region, and geographically it is something very much in the backyard of the US. However, this does by no means legitimise the kidnap operation that the US has imposed and operated. But at the end of the day, I think the historical reality of the region has witnessed similar experiences before,” he said.
He pointed out that since Iran is located in West Asia, such a move would become a concern for every other country in the region, particularly oil-based countries like Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and even the
Persian Gulf Arab countries, all of them. Emamian also asserted that the Iranian society is different from the Latin American nations.
“Iran has been very much attacked and been subject to foreign intervention, but never been colonised because Iranian society is very culturally rich and civilizationally rooted,” he said. However, he told Firstpost that the Iranian policymakers are still thinking of such scenarios. “Israeli’s are also thinking about Iran, so everything is possible,” he remarked.
Emamian also rejected the speculation that Khamenei may fly out to
Russia amid protests, maintaining that he is not the spokesperson of the Iranian government. “Actually, I’m not a a spokesperson of anyone, but I won’t see such a such a such a possibility. It has never happened in Iranian history for decades, and no one in Iran has. I never saw anyone in Iran, anyone intelligent or remarkable to make such speculations,” he said.
Push for multilateralism
Over the years, Iran has managed to have warmer ties with
Russia and China, something that did not sit well with the United States. Emamian told Firstpost that this warming of ties was the consequence of the unilateralism that the US and now Trump are imposing on the world.
“Trump is going to impose weaponised every instrument, trade, war, sanctions, and even military operations to safeguard the US’s unilateral interests. Hence, there are huge opportunities for the other countries, not only Iran, China and Russia, but also Iran and India to provide such platforms for not only bilateral, but also multilateral cooperation frameworks,” he said.
“It’s clear that the US has been imposing restrictions on almost every alternative or emerging economy in the world, even some economies that have never been politically challenging for the US, like India, with which it has always been in conflict,” the Iranian professor averred.
He claimed that since the US is thinking of India as a “potential emerging economic as a as a potential superpower”, they are “going to neutralise India as much as possible”. “With regards to Iran, Iran should diversify its economy, particularly in Economic Cooperation. It has already started. Iran has been very actively working with some countries like India and China for a long time,” he told Firstpost.
Hopes from India’s presidency in Brics
This year,
India assumed the presidency of Brics from Brazil, while elucidating its expectations from New Delhi, Emamian said that he is expecting a “different India” to take the lead, comparing with how the country operated during Trump’s first term. He also noted that India can bring balance between Brics and the United States to prevent chaos.
“India is now much more aware of unilateralism, and it’s much more realistic. India, at this moment, has been seen as a potential rival for the US. So I think India now is very much concerned about its own sovereignty, autonomy, and strategic autonomy policy,” he said.
“I think
India’s presidency of the Brics would be an important opportunity for India to balance the group’s relationship with the US. Trump’s policies have been transactional. So India should provide a balancing platform for Brics members to work together at the same time. For that, India needs to negotiate well with the US.”
Emamian recalled the
Chabahar Port incident to describe how India is good at such negotiations and balancing. “You may remember the Chahbahar Port in the first Trump administration, India convinced the US with a different rationale. At the end of the day, India convinced America to waive the sanctions over the port,” he said.
“Trump’s policy is negotiable. The transactional foreign policy of the Trump administration is something that needs to be discussed. We have seen small but intelligent countries like Qatar have been successful in striking such deals. Trump’s treatment of Qatar in the first term is very much different from how he treats the country in the second term. I think India shows the competence to provide such a balance,” he added.
On the Gaza peace deal
Last year, Israel and Hamas agreed to a
Gaza peace deal, brokered by the United States, that helped stop the clashes in the coastal enclave after two years of war. When asked about the peace deal and how Iran is looking at the persistent tension in West Asia, Prof. Emamian maintained that Iran’s official position has always been in support of the Palestinian cause.
“If Palestinians are happy with any kind of deal, Iran is going to support it practically. Iran has been clearly saying that they were not aware of the
Hamas October 7 attack, but post that, Iran has always been supporting the region like every normal country that supports the Palestinian rights,” he told Firstpost.
He accused Israel of committing genocide and noted how international courts have been condemning Israel for the same. While talking about the deal, the Iranian professor suggested that the West Asian nation should have been more proactive during the negotiations.
“I was always encouraging Iranian policy makers that I think you need to be much more proactive in that regard, rather than just keeping the mediation table empty for the Iranian people. But I was told by the policymakers that Iran will support the Palestinians with any kind of deal.”
‘Iranian policymakers are always saying that we are not public in support of the two-state solution and we are not thinking of it as a viable, feasible solution. We are thinking of a democratically created Palestinian state. But at the end of the day, if Palestinians are happy with a two-state solution in any resolution, even in the UN, Iran has voted in support of the Palestinian position,” he furthered.
While giving his take on the deal, Prof Emamian also warned that Israeli Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu might be looking for another pretext to make the deal falter. The Iranian expert pointed out that the Israeli premier might want to continue the conflict for his political survivability.
Message for President Pezeshkian
Emamian reiterated that Iran is a diverse society and has witnessed similar demonstrations and unrest in the past. However, he pointed out that what was concerning this time was foreign intervention into the internal matter. “Funding and even military support of the Israelis for violent groups, it’s not something secret. Because of these reasons, small-scale demonstrations become violent,” he said.
“We have also long experienced tensions at the border, particularly one of our borders has been in a similar position to that of India. We have always been attacked, or on our southeastern borders by Pakistan, and terrorist attacks in the region often happen when Iran and Israel are involved in a confrontation,” he added.
While Emamian insisted that the Iranian society is peaceful, he also urged the
Pezeshkian government to be “proactive” interms of dealing with the protests. “The current Iranian government calls itself reformist. They have been, to some extent, open to demonstrations. They have been very much in support of dialogue, in support of hearing the voices of legitimate and peaceful demonstrators. But at the same time, it’s not enough,” he told Firstpost.
“They need to be more proactive in responding to the legitimate expectation of the demonstrators. The replacement of the head of the Iranian central bank was something very much needed, but it happened too late. The previous head was thinking much differently from the Iranian policymakers and the economic minister. So the current administration was too slow in modifying its policies.”
“Protesters now are proactively looking for compensation for the incompetencies and also a modified machinery of government in a way that the government could help the country pass beyond a very challenging period of time,” he explained.
Emamian emphasised that the country needs to be more careful about its economy, trade, military and intelligence. “With regards to the poorest parts of society, they need government support. So it’s important for the government to not only talk but do something for economic relief,” he said.
However, the Iranian expert maintained that
President Pezeshkian, as of now, has “acted wisely and has been open in accepting criticism.” The demonstrations in Iran have escalated further since this interview. Hence, Iran has a major challenge to deal with.
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