In a bid to placate US President Donald Trump and distract him from the war in Ukraine, Russian leader Vladimir Putin may agree to some sort of a ceasefire regarding aerial attacks on Ukraine that would fall short of any meaningful, comprehensive truce.
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In a bid to placate US President Donald Trump and take his attention off the war in Ukraine, Russian leader Vladimir Putin may agree to a piecemeal ceasefire that may not mean much in reality.
Ahead of this week’s deadline set by Trump for Putin to accept a ceasefire in Ukraine, US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff arrived in Moscow on Wednesday for talks with Russian officials — possibly a meeting with Putin as well. In talks with Witkoff, who has always been friendly with Russia, Putin is expected to agree to an arrangement that may placate Trump and yet not mean much.
Analysts have long said that any short-term ceasefire that does not outline an irreversible path for the end of the war will be used by Putin to replenish the ranks of its forces and rearm his troops to resume the war with greater force at a later date of his choice.
Bloomberg has reported that the Kremlin is weighing options for a concession to Trump that could include a ceasefire regarding aerial attacks on Ukraine.
Such a move is aimed at placating Trump enough so that he does not slap secondary sanctions and tariffs on Russia.
In addition to direct sanctions and tariffs on the failure to agree to a ceasefire, Trump has threatened secondary tariffs and sanctions, which mean that all countries buying designated Russian goods —such as India and China buying Russian oil— will face sanctions and pay tariff on their trade with the United States.
In recent days, Trump has threatened to “substantially” raise tariff on India and impose additional penalties over the trade with Russia. He has already slapped India with 25 per cent tariff, which is among the highest rate for any country.
Putin wants to fool Trump — again
While Putin will restore goodwill with a piecemeal ceasefire that would only cease attacks in one domain, such as air, but do nothing about other domains, such as ground offensives, it will do nothing to help Ukraine in the broader war.
Instead, in whichever domain the ceasefire will be implemented, Russia will get the opportunity to replenish its personnel and arsenal.
If Trump agrees to such a temporary ceasefire, he will grant Putin an item from his wish list — yet again.
“For Putin, the ideal scenario is to freeze the conflict for a while, build up strength, and then resume the war — ideally with a more plausible pretext, such as accusing Ukraine of failing to comply with peace agreements,” Kseniya Kirillova, a Russia analyst at Jamestown Foundation, previously told Firstpost.
Sergei Markov, a Moscow-based political consultant close to the Kremlin, confirmed the same, saying Putin is hoping to give a “gift” to Trump to get his way.
“Trump needs some kind of a ‘gift’, a concession from Russia. An air truce could be such a gift,” Markov told Bloomberg.
