As early as October 2026, Russia could overrun a strategic Lithuanian city in just two days amid US abandonment of Nato and hesitancy among European members such as Germany and Poland to deploy soldiers, a wargame conducted in Germany has found.
As early as October 2026, Russia could overrun a strategic Lithuanian city in just two days amid US abandonment of Nato and hesitancy among European members such as Germany and Poland to deploy soldiers, a wargame conducted in Germany has found.
Russia could seize the Lithuanian city of Marijampolė, establish domination over the Baltics, and cast a shadow over Norway, Sweden, and Finland with as few as 15,000 troops, according to a wargame by Germany’s Die Welt newspaper and the German Wargaming Centre of Helmut Schmidt University.
The result would be the death of Nato and the crumbling of Europe’s defences against Russian threats.
Germany and other European countries have believed that Russian leader Vladimir Putin would make a move on Europe beyond Ukraine by 2029, but there are concerns that US President Donald Trump’s abandonment of Nato, realignment with Russia, and systematic undermining of Europe could shorten the timeline.
Russian thrust, US abandonment, European hesitancy: Wargame outlines Nato’s demise
In the wargame, Russia used the pretext of a purported humanitarian crisis in the exclave of Kaliningrad to seize the nearby Lithuanian city of Marijampolė —Russia has previously used similar pretexts to invade Georgia (2008) and Ukraine (2014 and 2022).
Marijampolė is around 180–200 kilometres from Kaliningrad, where Russia has several thousand soldiers, dozens of fighter planes, and several warships. It was understood to have around 10–25,000 soldiers there before the invasion of Ukraine, but the numbers fell as personnel were redeployed to the war in Ukraine.
In the wargame, the Russian invasion and occupation were enabled by the American refusal to invoke Article 5 and by hesitancy among Germany and Poland to deploy troops for the defence of the city. Article 5 contains Nato’s collective defence principle that underpins the alliance.
In the wargame, the United States did not invoke Article 5 because it was convinced by the Russian portrayal of the purported humanitarian crisis in Kaliningrad. Notably, in his second term, Trump and his top officials have repeatedly parroted the Russian line on the war in Ukraine and the conflict with Europe, repeatedly —and falsely— blaming Ukraine and Nato for starting the war with Russia.
Marijampolė lies near the Suwałki Gap, a narrow strip of land between Poland and Lithuania bordered by Kaliningrad and Russian ally Belarus. Russian control of the Suwałki Gap and the fall of Marijampolė would sever the Baltic states of Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia from the rest of Europe.
How Russia could win
While the United States refused to invoke collective defence principle, Poland and Germany also did not act in the wargame.
In the exercise, Poland mobilised but did not send troops across the border into Lithuania for the city’s defence whereas the German brigade deployed in Lithuania failed to intervene partly because Russia used drones to lay mines on roads leading out of its base.
German inaction was essential for the Russian victory, according to Franz‑Stefan Gady, a Vienna-based military analyst who played the Russian chief of the general staff in the wargame.
“Deterrence depends not only on capabilities, but on what the enemy believes about our will, and in the wargame my ‘Russian colleagues’ and I knew: Germany will hesitate. And this was enough to win,” Gady told the Wall Street Journal.
End of Article
