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Rupee may stay weak this year but 2026 will be better: ANZ economist

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Richard Yetsenga, Group Chief Economist at ANZ Research, believes the Indian rupee will remain weak in 2025. But he expects 2026 to be a much better year for the currency.

India’s economy could remain one of the fastest-growing in the world as foreign investors return and inflation pressures ease globally, according to Yetsenga.

Yetsenga said the global rate environment will continue to shape capital flows. The US Federal Reserve is expected to deliver a 25 basis points rate cut, but he noted this view developed recently. “Two weeks ago that wasn’t the case. The market was very much at sixes and sevens about what the Fed would do,” he added.

Also Read | India economy, rupee forecast, US Fed rate cut, India GDP growth, FPI flows, stock market outlook 2026, global economy, inflation outlook

Sticky inflation around 3% and tariff challenges in the United States could delay deeper rate cuts until there is clearer evidence of cooling prices into 2026.

Yetsenga explained that India differs from other Asian economies because it does not have a trade agreement with the US. This lack of certainty may be one of the factors holding the markets in India back a little bit.

Even so, he expects stronger foreign portfolio investor (FPI) inflows next year. While the current market focus is the AI boom in the US, Korea, Japan, and Taiwan, he believes investor attention could shift.

“The Indian market comes back into its own,” he said, if expectations around AI growth become more realistic.

Also Read | US tech rally may slow; India could gain in 2026, says Lyn Alden

Yetsenga said India’s recent gross domestic product (GDP) numbers confirm strong momentum. The real growth rate may be between earlier lower estimates and the recent 8% reading, but the performance remains strong in a weak global environment.

“Somewhere even below that is still I think a really solid outcome in a world which is really struggling for economic growth,” he noted, adding that this strength will remain “a feature of the Indian story in 2026.”

For the full interview, watch the accompanying video

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