The Reserve Bank of India will unveil its bi-monthly monetary policy decision on Friday, December 5, with Governor Sanjay Malhotra set to announce the outcome of the Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) three-day meeting.
The review comes at a time when inflation is easing, GDP growth is accelerating, the rupee has breached 90 against the dollar, and geopolitical uncertainties persist.
The central bank has already cut the repo rate by 100 basis points this year, across three rounds starting February, as CPI inflation trended lower. Governor Malhotra had indicated last month that there was “scope for further reduction.” India’s retail inflation target remains 4% with a 2% tolerance band.
The RBI is also expected to upgrade its growth forecast after stronger-than-expected first-half numbers. In October, it had raised FY26 GDP growth projections to 6.8% from 6.5%.
HDFC Bank noted, “This year, growth has overshot, and inflation has undershot… lingering risks on growth in H2 and inflation likely staying below 4% until Q3FY27 may still justify another 25 bps cut.”
SBI Research added that with strong GDP numbers and benign inflation, the RBI must clearly communicate its rate trajectory while maintaining a neutral stance.
Crisil’s Chief Economist Dharmakirti Joshi expects a 25-bps cut in December, citing a sharp drop in retail inflation —l ed largely by cooling food prices — and subdued fuel inflation. Core inflation (excluding gold) also eased to 2.6% in October.
Majority expect a rate cut, but divided on future trajectory
A CNBC-TV18 poll indicates a slight tilt toward easing, with 60% of respondents expecting a 25-basis-point cut and 40% projecting a status quo.
Among those expecting a cut, the outlook for the easing cycle remains split:
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60% believe December will be the last cut.
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30% see one more cut in February.
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10% say the rate-cut cycle is already over.
RBI MPC announcement: Date and time
The policy outcome will be announced on Friday, December 5, at 10 am by RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra.
RBI MPC: Where to watch?
The announcement will be streamed live on RBI’s official YouTube channel.
Also Read: Weak rupee unlikely to derail RBI’s easing cycle, says Goldman Sachs
