The Reserve Bank of India will announce its monetary policy decision on October 1, and a CNBC-TV18 poll indicates that most experts expect the central bank to keep interest rates unchanged.
About 80% of respondents believe the RBI will hold rates, while 20% anticipate a 25-basis-point cut.
Opinions on the terminal policy rate for this cycle are divided. Forty per cent expect it to settle at 5.25%, while 30% each see it at either 5.50% or 5%.
The majority of experts, around 60%, believe the rate-cutting cycle will end by October 2025. Another 20% expect it to continue until December 2025, while the remainder think it may last until April 2026 or later.
All participants in the poll agree that the Monetary Policy Committee will maintain its current neutral stance.
Growth and inflation projections will also be closely watched. Forty per cent of experts expect the RBI to keep its FY26 GDP forecast unchanged at 6.5%, while the rest are split between an upward revision to 6.6–6.7% and 6.7–6.8%.
On inflation, the consensus is clearer, with 70% of respondents expecting the CPI forecast to be lowered to 2.5–2.7%. Only 20% see it at 2.8–3%, while 10% believe it will remain unchanged at 3.1%.
Regarding tone, 60% of experts expect the policy to sound dovish, while the remainder see it as neutral.
Despite recent weakness in the rupee, 80% of respondents do not think it will affect the RBI’s decision.
Apart from rates and forecasts, markets will watch for targeted support measures for exporters, especially MSMEs, potential easing of rules for sectors facing tariff pressures, and steps to bring NBFCs under the external benchmark lending rate framework. Assurances of ample liquidity and the exact language of the policy statement will also be in focus.
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(Edited by : Sheersh Kapoor)