As the vote counting continues for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, trends are suggesting a poles-apart result from what the exit polls had predicted. The INDIA bloc is giving a tough fight to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA). At 12 pm, the NDA was leading on 295 seats, while the INDIA bloc was ahead on 225 seats.
The NDA has high hopes from the Hindi heartland. In the 2019 General Elections, the NDA had pulled off 178 seats.
The Hindi belt is crucial in shaping political power in India, partly due to its numerical strength. The northern states account for a significant 245 seats in the Lok Sabha, with the Hindi belt, excluding Punjab and Jammu and Kashmir, holding 226 seats.
In major states in the Hindi belt, the NDA was trailing behind in Uttar Pradesh. At 12 pm, the NDA was leading on 35 seats, while the INDIA alliance was surging ahead on 43 seats.
However, in Madhya Pradesh the NDA showed strong signs with the alliance leading on all 29 Lok Sabha seats. The INDIA bloc hasn’t been able to open its account in MP.
In Rajasthan, the BJP was leading on 14 seats, while the Congress trailed closely behind on 11 seats. In Kota, BJP’s leader and Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla was leading by a margin of about 13,000 votes against his former colleague and now Congress candidate Prahlad Gunjal, as of 11.50 am.
In Bihar, the NDA alliance with CM Nitish Kumar seems to be working as the saffron unity was leading on 32 seats. Meanwhile, the INDIA bloc, led by Lalu Prasad’s Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), was leading on 7 seats. Nitish Kumar’s hold remained intact as JD(U) was leading on 15 of the 16 seats it contested. BJP leads on 12 seats, LJP(RV) on 5 seats. The INDIA bloc’s lead has been reduced to seven seats.
In Chhattisgarh, the BJP was leading on 10 seats, while the Congress was leading on one. In important constituencies of Raigarh, Janjgir-Champa, Mahasamund, and Bastar, the BJP was in the lead.
Congress candidate and former State Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel is leading in Rajnandgaon constituency in Chhattisgarh.
However, it is important to note that the BJP had swept the Hindi heartland in 2019. The only state it lagged a bit was Uttar Pradesh where it got 60 out of the 80 seats. Thus, to improve its tally, it was crucial for the NDA to better its result in UP, where it currently is trailing behind the INDIA alliance.
Exit polls suggested NDA will sweep Hindi belt
The News-18 Mega Exit Poll suggested that the outcome in Chhattisgarh will be similar to 2019. The BJP and NDA are projected to win 9-11 of the 11 Lok Sabha seats, while the Congress and the INDIA bloc are expected to secure 0-2 seats. While in Rajasthan, the BJP and its allies were expected to win 18-23 of the 25 seats in Rajasthan, with the Congress and its INDIA bloc likely to get 2-7 seats.
In Madhya Pradesh, the exit poll had predicted that the BJP will sweep all the seats and the INDIA alliance may get between 0-3 seats.
In the crucial state of Uttar Pradesh for BJP’s ‘400 paar’ dreams, the exit polls expected the saffron party and its allies to get between 68 and 71 seats.
Additionally, the politically significant state of Bihar, which has seen major political shifts following JDU chief Nitish Kumar’s alignment with the NDA, was predicted to yield around 31-34 seats to the NDA and 6-9 seats to the INDIA grouping. The current trend is holding close to the expectations.
How did the BJP fare in 2019 in the Hindi belt?
First, except for Bihar, where the BJP had a state-level partner, the BJP’s vote share in all other Hindi belt states was between 50 per cent and over 60 per cent in 2019. The BJP won nearly all the seats in many of these states. However, in UP, the party fell short with just over 60 out of 80 seats.
Political pundits say that in other states in the region, even if the BJP matches its 2019 performance, it won’t add to its strength. Therefore, to improve on its 2019 results, the BJP must win more seats in UP. It cannot gain many more seats in Bihar because it must share seats with its state-level allies.
First Published: Jun 04 2024 | 12:57 PM IST