After a crushing defeat in the 2024 presidential election, the Democratic Party on Tuesday scored its first victory against US President Donald Trump.
Democratic nominees defeated Republicans in New York City’s mayoral election and gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey. In California, voters delivered a win to Governor Gavin Newsom to redraw electoral district maps in response to Republican-led redistricting in Red States.
Trump was not on the ballot, but he didn’t need to be. As the undisputed leader of the Republican Party, all victories are his — and all defeats are his too.
Similarly, former President Barack Obama was not on the ballot either. But he had endorsed Democratic gubernatorial nominees in New Jersey and Virginia, Mikie Sherrill and Abigail Spanberger, and campaigned for them. He also backed the redistricting initiative in California and indirectly supported Zohran Mamdani in New York City mayoral election.
In the first direct contest in nearly eight years, Obama beat Trump with a perfect 4-0 score. That has led to serious speculation over whether the two may clash again in 2028.
Obama reenters politics in Trump’s era. But will he run in 2028?
Ever since his 2008 presidential campaign, hope and faith in the American Dream have been Obama’s driving forces.
For a long time, Obama believed there was more to America than Red States and Blue States. He believed in the endurance of the United States and was confident the nation would survive Trump’s tenure.
But Obama is not so sure anymore, according to CNN.
After a pause, Obama appears to be re-entering politics.
After conversations with members of Obama’s inner circle familiar with his current thinking, CNN reported that darkness and anxiety have crept into his message of hope and change. This has led to his increased involvement in politics during Trump’s second term.
During former President Joe Biden’s term, Obama had stepped back, even as he remained the party’s top fundraiser. His rationale was to allow the next generation of Democratic leaders to emerge.
But as Trump wages a retribution campaign against state institutions —and even private ones— Obama fears that Trump may not allow the next generation of Democratic leaders to emerge, CNN reported.
As the fundamentals have changed, Obama is working with aides to rework strategies, the report said.
The driving force is the damage Trump is doing to the nation, as per Obama’s circle.
“The harm is so profound that this calls for both a different approach generally, and a different involvement specifically by President Obama,” said Eric Holder, a former attorney general and longtime friend of Obama.
Holder added, “If we are focused, if we’re willing to engage, if we are willing to do the work, the nation and our democracy can survive this. There will be damage done along the way — there’s no question about that. We won’t win every battle.”
Obama’s allure among Democrats remains strong, with candidates repeatedly seeking his support and advice — despite him being out of office for nearly a decade.
Some say Obama will be 68 by the time of the next election. But he will still be 15 years younger than Trump — who will be 83.
Obama may actually beat Trump, say surveys
Surveys over the past year have repeatedly given Obama an edge over Trump — or at least a fighting chance.
In April, 53 per cent of voters said they would vote for Obama while 47 per cent said they would vote for Trump, according to an Overton Insights survey.
In July, a Daily Mail–JL Partners survey found that Obama would beat Trump by a margin of 11 per cent.
Such scenarios are backed by the reality that Trump’s ratings have continued to fall in his second term.
These scenarios remain hypothetical as both Obama and Trump are constitutionally barred from a third term.
The 22nd Amendment of the US Constitution states: “No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice.”
But legal or constitutional limits have never been a check on Trump’s tendency of overreach. He, after all, sought to override the constitutional provision of birthright citizenship by the simple stroke of a pen.
Trump and his loyalists have claimed there are workarounds to bypass constitutional limitations. They argue that the 22nd Amendment is not foolproof and have suggested loopholes for Trump to run for a third term.
To bypass the 22nd Amendment, Trump’s supporters have proposed that he could run as the vice-presidential nominee of a dummy presidential candidate —such as JD Vance— and then become president upon the dummy’s resignation. They argue that the 22nd Amendment bars a person from being ’elected’ president, but not necessarily from ‘becoming’ president through other means, such as succession from the vice presidency.
If Trump could run for a third term, Obama could too. And Trump could be in trouble then.
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