A Chinese private intelligence firm has come under increased scrutiny after publishing detailed reports on US military deployments near Iran, highlighting what experts say are Beijing’s growing open-source intelligence capabilities, according to a South China Morning Post report.
MizarVision, a commercial intelligence analysis company based in China, has for the past two years posted updates on American military movements on social media. However, observers say the firm has stepped up both the frequency and detail of its disclosures in recent weeks.
According to the report, the posts outline deployments of US military assets across Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Greece and Qatar, specifying the number and models of aircraft stationed at various bases, along with information on air defence systems.
The heightened activity comes amid rising tensions involving Iran and the prospect of potential US military action.
Such detailed, publicly shared tracking highlights the expanding role of private firms in monitoring global military movements through satellite imagery and open-source data, added the report, citing analysts.
In its latest update on Wednesday, MizarVision reported on the arrival of the USS Gerald R. Ford, the world’s largest aircraft carrier, at the Greek island of Crete.
The deployment is widely seen as part of Washington’s largest military build-up in West Asia since the 2003 Iraq war.
“High-definition satellite imagery indicates a reduction in both tanker and transport aircraft at Al Udeid Air Base, though air defence and anti-missile systems remain deployed,” South China Morning Post quoted the firm as saying in a post on Tuesday.
The firm also cited the US military base in Qatar that withstood an Iranian missile strike in June last year, located 35km southwest of Doha. It monitors the US base at Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, a key hub for American operations and logistics in the Middle East.
On Sunday, MizarVision said US C-17 transport aircraft formations “were still crossing the Atlantic to deliver military supplies to the Middle East”.
US media reported Washington was poised to strike Iran over the weekend, with President Donald Trump considering a limited attack to pressure Tehran to abandon its nuclear programme.
In his State of the Union address on Tuesday, Trump said he preferred “to solve this problem through diplomacy. But one thing is certain, I will never allow the world’s number one sponsor of terrorism … to have a nuclear weapon.”
Iran insists its programme is peaceful and has threatened retaliation if attacked.
Rare disclosures
It is rare for a Chinese private firm to disclose such sensitive intelligence, particularly as Beijing urges de-escalation.
Dennis Wilder, a former senior US intelligence official now at Georgetown University, questioned the motive.
“What is Beijing’s purpose in allowing these photos to be published? Is it trying to prove its intelligence capabilities after the failure to detect the US extraction of [Nicolas] Maduro?” SCMP quoted him as saying.
A company representative, identified only as Wang, said its sources included Western and Chinese commercial entities but declined to specify origins.
He described its analysis as “normal in commercial operations” that “aligns with international standards”.
Hu Bo of the South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative said the West Asia images were sourced from American satellites.
“Judging by the satellite ephemeris, these images were sourced from American satellites, not Chinese ones,” SCMP quoted him as saying, adding their battlefield value was limited.
Retired Chinese colonel Yue Gang told the news outlet that such work could “provide non-classified, low-threshold intelligence support services” and that MizarVision’s capabilities “can supplement China’s national intelligence capacities”, calling it “a beneficial exploration contributing to China’s development as an intelligence powerhouse”.
He said the activities were legal and unlikely to affect the West Asia situation.
Military commentator Song Zhongping said monitoring US movements “demonstrates capability and is advertising”, adding it “also symbolises the strength of a nation and an enterprise”.
Intelligence record
MizarVision says it specialises in AI-driven geographic business intelligence, including “fully automated multi-source vessel identification, feature classification and change detection, [and] scene and data pattern recognition”.
The firm has previously disclosed sensitive PLA developments. In 2024, it published satellite images of a Chinese aircraft carrier — widely identified as the Shandong — near the Philippines during heightened South China Sea tensions.
In 2023, after a US Navy P-8A patrol aircraft flew over the Taiwan Strait, state media cited audio captured by MizarVision of PLA pilots warning the US plane to leave. The same year, it supplied a report alleging frequent US reconnaissance activities near China, amid a diplomatic row over a suspected Chinese spy balloon shot down by Washington.
China’s AI-powered satellite networks are rapidly expanding, enabling precise tracking of key US military assets beyond East Asia. In the Middle East, Chinese commercial firms have also used high-resolution satellite imagery to assess destruction in Gaza.
With inputs from agencies
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