Iran’s crypto outflows spike after US–Israel attack – Firstpost

Outflows from Iranian cryptocurrency exchanges surged within hours of US and Israeli strikes on Iran, according to blockchain analytics firms, in a fresh sign of how digital assets have become a pressure valve for both state-linked actors and ordinary citizens during periods of acute geopolitical stress.

US-based blockchain research firm Chainalysis said funds leaving Iranian crypto exchanges exceeded $2 million in the hour after the strikes began on Saturday.

British analytics company Elliptic said outflows from Iran’s largest crypto exchange, Nobitex, peaked at $2.89 million between 1100 and 1200 GMT (4:30 and 5:30 pm) — roughly eight times the previous day’s highest hourly outflow.

“Cryptoasset outflows from Iranian exchange Nobitex surged within minutes of the first US-Israeli attack on Iran, with outgoing transaction volumes spiking by 700%,” Elliptic said.

Between Saturday and Monday, a total of $10.3 million worth of cryptocurrencies left Iranian exchanges, Chainalysis said.

Stress reaction or strategic repositioning?

Chainalysis cautioned that it was not possible to definitively establish who moved the funds or why.

“Some of these flows are almost certainly ordinary Iranians moving funds in response to rising risk,” the firm said. “Others may be exchanges reshuffling liquidity or attempting to reduce the visibility of their operations on-chain, or state-aligned actors leveraging mainstream platforms to transfer funds.”

Elliptic said initial tracing suggested that funds were being sent to overseas exchanges and that the spike “potentially represents capital flight from Iran”.

However, US blockchain intelligence firm TRM Labs told Reuters the activity at Nobitex appeared “more indicative of activity under stress than evidence of systemic capital flight”.

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Crypto’s expanding role in a sanctions-bound economy

The surge in outflows comes against the backdrop of intensifying US scrutiny of Iran’s crypto ecosystem. As reported earlier by Firstpost, American investigators are examining whether digital asset networks have enabled sanctions evasion by Iranian officials and state-linked entities, particularly the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

According to TRM Labs estimates cited previously, the IRGC has moved roughly $3 billion in cryptocurrency since 2023.

Iran’s broader crypto footprint has expanded sharply. Transaction volumes linked to the country reached between $8 billion and $10 billion in 2025, while Iranian wallets received a record $7.8 billion that year, according to the blockchain researcher. Though significant, these figures remain modest compared with Iran’s oil revenues, estimated at $53 billion in 2023.

For Tehran, cryptocurrencies — particularly stablecoins such as USDT — offer a way to bypass correspondent banks, SWIFT messaging systems and Western-controlled clearing networks. For citizens, battered by inflation and a weakening rial, digital assets increasingly function as a store of value and a mechanism to discreetly move capital abroad during episodes of unrest.

Nobitex has previously told Reuters that around 15 million Iranians have some exposure to crypto assets, with the bulk of activity driven by retail participants seeking protection from currency depreciation.

A geopolitical stress test for decentralised finance

Saturday’s spike in outflows reinforces a pattern observed by blockchain researchers: crypto activity in Iran tends to accelerate during geopolitical shocks, cyberattacks or periods of domestic instability.

While cryptocurrencies remain a relatively small slice of the global financial system, the International Monetary Fund has noted that their use is likely to grow in emerging markets with weak currencies and restricted access to international finance.