The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation has already released the revised weights for the CPI basket. The most significant change is a sharp reduction in the weight assigned to food, which has been cut from 45.86% to 36.75%. At the same time, the share of non-food, non-fuel items has risen from around 45% to nearly 55%. The shift reflects changes in household consumption patterns, with rising incomes leading families to spend a smaller proportion of their budgets on food and a larger share on other goods and services.
For January, inflation calculations under the existing series suggest a reading of 2.36%, up from around 1.3% in December but significantly lower than 4.26% recorded in January last year. This indicates a sharp moderation on a year-on-year basis.
However, estimates based on the new series point to a slightly higher print of 2.89%, or close to 3%, reflecting the impact of the revised weights. While food inflation is expected to remain in negative territory under both series, core inflation is likely to be firmer due to a favourable base effect. Core inflation stood at 3.67% in January 2025 and is estimated to rise to 4.7% under the old series and nearly 4.9% under the new series for January 2026.
Also Read | January inflation data to be based on new CPI series
Overall, while the old series suggests inflation of a little over 2% for January, the new series is likely to place the headline number closer to the 3% mark, marking the first reading under the updated consumption basket.
