Sachchidanand Shukla, Group Chief Economist at Larsen and Toubro (L&T), said the estimate of around 7% growth is robust in the current global context, but cautioned that headline numbers mask underlying fragilities. While aggregate gross value added (GVA) has returned to its pre-pandemic trend, key employment-heavy sectors such as manufacturing and trade, hotels, transport, and communication services are still lagging, highlighting the need for sustained and targeted policy support.
For equity markets, the near-7% growth outlook remains supportive, particularly for domestically oriented sectors, as resilient demand and policy stimulus continue to provide a buffer against global uncertainty. However, the uneven recovery across sectors suggests that stock performance may increasingly diverge, favouring areas where demand recovery is more entrenched.
On the external front, Dhiraj Nim, Economist and FX Strategist at ANZ Research, said it is “very hard to catch any definitive signal” in trade data at this stage, as factors such as front-loading ahead of US tariffs have distorted export trends. He added that the impact of trade protectionism on India and the broader region is likely to emerge with a lag, keeping the rupee and export-sensitive sectors vulnerable to shifts in global sentiment through 2026.
Also Read: Economic Survey pegs India’s FY27 growth at 6.8-7.2%, outlook remains positive
From a fiscal and rates perspective, Sakshi Gupta, Vice President and Senior Economist at HDFC Bank, said the budget could reasonably work with a 10.5–11% nominal gross domestic product (GDP) growth assumption, given real growth near 7% and inflation close to 4%. She also flagged upside risks to inflation from imported costs, commodity prices and weather-related uncertainties.
Shukla added that as India transitions from deficit targeting to debt targeting, fiscal credibility will be critical for bond markets. He said a fiscal deficit closer to 4.3% would not be concerning if borrowing numbers remain broadly in line with market expectations, cautioning against overreacting to one-year deviations from the medium-term consolidation path.
Also Read: ‘Rupee is punching below its weight’, says India’s latest economic survey
On the currency, Shukla stressed the importance of focusing on trade competitiveness and policy execution rather than reacting defensively. He warned that showing signs of panic could be counterproductive for the rupee, especially at a time when capital inflows remain uneven despite a seemingly favourable macro backdrop.
Adding to the debate on the rupee, Debasish Panda, former IRDAI chairman and former secretary in the Department of Financial Services, said there was no need for alarm over currency movements during a growth phase. He said the government should not attempt to “artificially hold on to the rupee,” stating that such volatility is natural when an economy is expanding and that the Reserve Bank of India would be closely monitoring developments. Global factors, he added, may also be contributing to recent instability, but the outlook for the currency remains stable.
Also Read: Economic Survey says strong tax collections and careful spending supported demand in FY26
On the government’s broader reform agenda, Subhash Garg, former finance secretary, said ownership classifications should not constrain the disinvestment process. He argued that the focus should be on intent rather than rigid thresholds, stating that effective control does not always require a 51% stake. Garg said the idea of allowing the government to go below majority ownership is sound. Still, ultimately, the pace of privatisation will depend on whether the government chooses to pursue it decisively.
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