Rühl said India has already begun renting ships from the Middle East to replace a part of its Russian crude imports, signalling that substitution is happening on the ground even as political messaging from New Delhi remains broad.
The US sanctions on Russian oil firms Rosneft and Lukoil took effect today, creating uncertainty for nearly 48 million barrels of Russian crude currently at sea. Many of these shipments were headed towards India and China but are now searching for alternative routes as sanctions complicate their final destinations.
Rühl described the global system as being in the middle of a slow but steady “adjustment phase”, with new oil flows expected to settle over the next few weeks.
Since the start of the Ukraine war, India sharply increased its imports of discounted Russian crude, refining it for domestic consumption and exporting part of the output — a practice that had frustrated Washington. But with sanctions introducing fresh barriers to Russian logistics, Indian refiners are now moving to secure Middle Eastern barrels more aggressively.
Globally, crude prices remain under pressure as stranded Russian oil continues to float without a home. But Rühl believes India’s import bill is unlikely to rise meaningfully because markets remain well supplied and Russian discounts had already narrowed sharply before the sanctions came into force.
India’s shifting crude strategy comes as Washington pushes for stronger alignment on energy security. In October, India’s oil imports from the United States rose to 10.7% from around 3% in 2024, according to US Treasury data. New Delhi also recently announced that 10% of its LPG requirements will be sourced from the US.
Rühl noted that while political signalling will continue, the realignment of crude flows will depend on how quickly Moscow can establish new transport routes — and whether winter-driven production constraints worsen the pressure on Russian supply.
Watch accompanying video for entire conversation.
