Centre weighs petrol and diesel export curbs, higher Russian crude imports and possible LPG rationing as Gulf supplies face uncertainty
India is preparing a multi-pronged contingency strategy to safeguard domestic fuel supplies as escalating tensions in West Asia threaten tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz—a key artery for the country’s oil and gas imports.
According to people familiar with high-level deliberations, the government is examining both supply- and demand-side interventions, including restricting exports of petrol and diesel, increasing crude purchases from Russia, and introducing targeted demand-management measures such as liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) rationing if disruptions persist for weeks.
The discussions come as global energy markets react sharply to widening hostilities in the region. Brent crude prices have climbed close to USD 80 per barrel after a near 10 per cent surge, while European natural gas prices have spiked over 40 per cent amid concerns over damage to energy infrastructure in Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Sparse tanker movement through the Strait of Hormuz for a second consecutive day has intensified supply fears.
LPG emerges as the weakest link
India’s most immediate vulnerability lies in LPG supplies. The country imports nearly two-thirds of its LPG consumption, with 85–90 per cent sourced from the Gulf. Industry estimates suggest that existing stocks — including onshore inventories and cargoes already past Hormuz — could cover less than two weeks of demand if fresh shipments are interrupted.
State-run refiners Indian Oil Corporation, Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL) and Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL) have reportedly begun boosting LPG output at integrated refining and petrochemical complexes to cushion potential shortages.
Officials are also evaluating targeted rationing for households that have access to alternative cooking fuels, particularly in rural areas, should the crisis extend.
Export restrictions under review
One immediate lever under consideration is curbing exports of refined fuels to prioritise domestic supply. India currently exports around one-third of its petrol production, roughly a quarter of diesel output, and close to half of its aviation turbine fuel (ATF). Refiners may also divert surplus ATF into other product streams if required.
India’s crude oil reserves are estimated to cover around 17–18 days of consumption, while petrol and diesel inventories provide approximately 20–21 days of cover. LNG stocks are believed to last 10–12 days. Without new arrivals via Hormuz, these buffers would steadily erode.
The Gulf region accounts for nearly half of India’s crude and LNG imports, underlining the strategic importance of uninterrupted transit through the narrow waterway.
Russian crude seen as alternative
Boosting imports of Russian oil is emerging as a key fallback option. Significant volumes of Russian crude remain available in global markets and could be redirected to Indian refiners relatively quickly, sources said.
There is also speculation that if global supply tightens further and prices spike, the United States could adopt a more flexible stance on India’s purchases of discounted Russian crude, particularly if broader energy market stability becomes a priority.
Oil Minister Hardeep Singh Puri has said the government is continuously monitoring developments and will take necessary steps to ensure the availability and affordability of petroleum products.
The duration of any disruption through the Strait of Hormuz will ultimately determine the severity of the impact. Short-term interruptions may be manageable through inventories and rerouting, but prolonged instability could test India’s energy security architecture and strain its import bill at a time of elevated geopolitical risk.
End of Article
