West Asia is on edge, as a conflict unfolds after the US and Israel have attacked Iran. Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and President Masoud Pezeshkian were both targeted in the strikes, but it is unclear if they were hit.
US President Donald Trump confirmed “major combat operations” are underway, as he called for regime change in the Islamic Republic. The US is reportedly planning for several days of attacks. Iran has responded by launching unprecedented strikes towards Israel and US targets across West Asia. Explosions were heard in Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, and Kuwait, as Tehran attempted to hit US military bases. The situation seems to be escalating by the minute.
But can Iran sustain this conflict with the mighty US and Israel?
Iran’s military manpower
Iran has a powerful military, with Global Firepower stating that it is a Top 20 global military power. In fact, Iran is ranked 16 out of 145 countries considered. The International Institute for Strategic Studies notes that the Iranian armed forces are among the largest in West Asia, with at least 580,000 active-duty personnel and about 200,000 trained reserve personnel divided among the traditional army and the
Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.
The regime in Iran also commands the Basij religious militia, a volunteer paramilitary force loyal to the establishment, which is often used to crack down on anti-government protests. Analysts say
Basij volunteers may number in the millions.
The Guards also operate the Quds Force, an elite unit in charge of arming, training and supporting the network of proxy militias throughout West Asia known as the “axis of resistance.” These militias include Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, militia groups in Syria and Iraq and Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Gaza.
According to Afshon Ostovar, an associate professor of national security affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School and an expert on Iran’s military, “There is a reason Iran has not been struck. It’s not that Iran’s adversaries fear Iran. It’s that they realise any war against Iran is a very serious war.”
While the proxy militias are not counted as part of Iran’s armed forces, analysts say they are considered an allied regional force — battle-ready, heavily armed and ideologically loyal — and could come to Iran’s aid.
Iran’s treasure trove of weapons
Apart from the manpower, Iran has a vast arsenal of airplanes, long-range missiles, drones and air defences. Tehran, in fact, has one of the largest arsenals of ballistic missiles and drones in West Asia. That includes cruise missiles and anti-ship missiles, as well as ballistic
missiles with ranges up to 2,000 kilometres, or more than 1,200 miles. These have the capacity and range to hit any target in West Asia, including Israel. This includes the
Sejil, which has a range of 2,494 km, as well as the Kheibar, boasting a range of 1,494 km.
Iran has made no secret of the build-up, displaying its trove of
drones and missiles during military parades, and has ambitions to build a large export business in drones. Iran’s Shahed drones are being used by Russia in Ukraine and have surfaced in the conflict in Sudan.
Iran also claims to have a multi-warhead missile, known as the
Khorramshahr, which was first tested in 2017 and appears likely to be derived from a North Korean missile, according to a report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Missile Defense Project.
The Arms Control Association, a Washington-based non-governmental organisation, notes that Iran’s missile programme is largely based on North Korean and Russian designs and has also received Chinese assistance.
When it comes to land power, Iran boasts of having 1,713 tanks as well as 1,517 rocket projectors. When it comes to the seas, Tehran has built a large fleet of speedboats and some small submarines that are capable of disrupting shipping traffic and global energy supplies that pass through the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz.
While Iran is considered to be a militarily strong nation, many defence experts note that it lags far behind the power and sophistication of the armed forces of the United States, Israel and some European countries.
For instance, Iran’s air force strength is negligible. Many of the aircraft are from the Shah regime of 1941 to 1979. Moreover, some of Iran’s tanks and armoured vehicles are old and outdated.
Iran’s nuclear capabilities
While Iran doesn’t have a nuclear weapon yet, it has a long history of engaging in secret nuclear weapons research in violation of its international commitments. Western analysts say the Islamic Republic has the knowledge and infrastructure to produce a nuclear weapon in fairly short order should its leaders decide to do so.
Analysts believe that Iran could produce enough
fissile material for a weapon in a few months. Others say they could produce such material in just a week or two, although many acknowledge that it would likely take longer for it to manufacture a nuclear weapon.
Fearing the worst, last June, the US targeted critical nuclear and military infrastructure across Iran, including
Natanz, the country’s main nuclear enrichment site. Washington also targeted
Fordow, an Iranian uranium enrichment facility.
A test for Iran?
Iran has been preparing for an imminent strike. However, its quick response to Saturday’s attack comes as a surprise. That said, the US has the biggest military in the world, and with the backing of Israel, they are only indomitable. “They (Iran) have about 2,000 to 3,000 missiles that they are capable of launching. The problem that they have is that they don’t have, at least according to the intelligence estimates, they don’t have the launchers that they had,” retired US Air Force Col Cedric Leighton told CNN’s Becky Anderson.
According to the military expert, Iran is believed to have around a third of the launchers it had before the June attacks last year. “I expected them to mount a response but not a response of this magnitude at this particular moment in time. So, they were clearly getting ready for this,” Leighton told CNN. “They were prepared.” It remains to be seen how long they can continue fighting.
With inputs from agencies
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