KPMG’s Abhishek Jain said the current trajectory suggests the system is settling into its “natural rhythm”. “Even as rate rationalisation was expected to lift collections significantly, the steady 8-9% annual GST growth reflects stability rather than stress,” he said. While refunds appear lower compared to last year, Jain noted that credits are accumulating in sectors with inverted duty structures, with refund outflows likely to rise in the months ahead. Imports, he added, “saw IGST growth of a little over 10%.”
Grant Thornton Bharat’s Manoj Mishra said the dip below the ₹1.8 lakh crore band — which held for most of the year — aligns with post-festive normalisation. “A moderation of this nature was expected once the festive cycle tapered and rate cuts filtered through. What’s notable is that collections remain stable on a historically high base, which shows that India’s underlying demand engine continues to hold firm,” he said. He also pointed to IGST on imports rising over 10% and refunds falling 4%, indicating firmer net revenue realisation.
Deloitte India’s MS Mani observed that while GST collections were expected to moderate due to “steep rate cuts across the board,” the consumption boost from lower prices has been weaker than hoped. “Gross GST collections are at the lowest level this fiscal at ₹1.7 lakh crore, versus an average of ₹1.86 lakh crore (excluding cess) till October. The loss on account of rate reductions has been compensated by higher consumption, though not at the expected scale,” he said. Mani noted wide divergence in state-wise performance and the need for sector-wise analysis to meet fiscal targets.
His colleague, Deloitte India Indirect Tax Leader Mahesh Jaising, struck a more upbeat tone, citing positive traction from GST 2.0 reforms. “Rate rationalisation has simplified compliance and improved business confidence. Refunds are up 20% on a YTD basis versus last year,” he said. With net revenues up 7.3% year-on-year, Jaising expects monthly collections to average ₹1.80–1.85 lakh crore in the coming months, keeping the government on track for a record annual mop-up above ₹21 lakh crore.
BDO India’s Karthik Mani highlighted the statistical impact of rate cuts, noting that domestic GST collections fell 2.3% year-on-year. “It was expected that increased affordability during Diwali would offset the revenue drop, but instead there’s a decline,” he said. The separation of compensation cess from headline GST data, he added, makes the fall look sharper, as cess collections have plunged with only tobacco now under the cess net.
EY India’s Saurabh Agarwal said a natural compression was inevitable because nearly 12–15% of the goods base shifted to lower GST slabs. Heavy pre-stocking ahead of festive demand also distorted the month’s numbers, he added. Despite this, he pointed to strong, counter-intuitive gains in Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Arunachal Pradesh and the Andaman & Nicobar Islands — a sign of rising regional consumption despite rate cuts. The government’s continued focus on timely refunds for inverted-duty and export cases, he said, underscores its commitment to easing liquidity.
Tax Connect Advisory Services’ Vivek Jalan said the muted growth must be read against broader macro indicators. “GST collections track consumption, whereas GDP includes government expenditure, investment and trade surplus. The GDP increase had a major component of higher government spending which, once adjusted, yields muted GST growth,” he said. Jalan added that GST 2.0 has deepened inverted duty structures in several sectors, driving a surge in refund claims filed in November that are likely to be cleared in December.
Integrating these dynamics, AKM Global’s Sandeep Sehgal said November’s mop-up reflects the early imprint of the September rate cuts. “Many everyday goods and consumer items are now taxed at lower rates, but the modest growth suggests the benefits are still filtering through the system,” he said. He flagged the 2.3% drop in domestic GST, 10.2% rise in import-GST and 4% fall in refunds as signs of short-term shifts in consumption and tax-base mix. “As November falls within the first few months after rate rationalisation, the muted growth underscores that while rate cuts offer structural relief, it may take a few more months to properly assess momentum,” he added.
Price Waterhouse & Co LLP’s Pratik Jain echoed the near-term caution but expects collections to gradually improve. “This print reflects the full-month impact of GST 2.0 rate cuts. With demand steadily rising, collections should progressively strengthen in the coming months,” he said.
Overall, experts agree that the November data reflects the mechanical impact of rate cuts and seasonality rather than economic weakness. With GDP expanding 8.2% in Q2 and import demand holding up, the next three to four months will be critical in determining whether consumption recovers enough to offset revenue foregone under GST 2.0 — and whether FY26 fiscal targets remain intact.