At the Munich Security Conference, Ursula von der Leyen warns that transatlantic ties have shifted irreversibly as European leaders speed up defence spending, explore a European Nato pillar and debate strategic autonomy amid US uncertainty.
The 2026 Munich Security Conference, traditionally a venue for affirmations of the Transatlantic bond has concluded with a stark new consensus: Europe is no longer waiting for Washington. Prompted by President Donald Trump’s disruptive push to annex Greenland and a growing sense of “civilisational” friction, European leaders are pivotally shifting from theoretical “strategic autonomy” to the cold reality of strategic necessity.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen captured the sombre mood on the summit’s final day, saying that “some lines have been crossed that cannot be uncrossed anymore.” While US Secretary of State Marco Rubio attempted to soothe allies with a warmer tone than previous years, the message from Washington remained one of transactional conditionality, leaving Europe with little choice but to accelerate its evolution into a standalone “hard power.”
Beyond the Greenland shock: The ‘European Pillar’ takes form
The recent crisis over Greenland, an autonomous territory of Nato member Denmark acted as a geopolitical tipping point. President Trump’s refusal to rule out military force or trade tariffs to secure the island deeply shaken the alliance’s core logic of mutual respect. In Munich, this anxiety translated into a concrete commitment to a “European Pillar” within Nato.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, alongside French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, used the summit to pledge a homegrown defence hedge against a volatile Washington. “This new beginning is right under all circumstances,” Merz stated, confirming he has begun talks with France regarding a European nuclear deterrent, a once-taboo subject that reflects the depth of European nervousness.
The strategy is clear: while Washington may keep its nuclear umbrella for now, Europe aims to take primary responsibility for its conventional defence. This shift puts them, ironically, on the same page as the Trump administration, which has long demanded that allies stop relying on U.S. largesse.
From words to weapons: Financing the autonomy
The rhetoric in the swanky Bayerischer Hof hotel is being backed by unprecedented financial firepower. Driven by the threat of a resurgent Russia and the wavering support from the White House, European NATO members have agreed to a new benchmark: raising core defense spending from 2% to 3.5% of GDP, with an additional 1.5% for security infrastructure.
The signs of industrial mobilization are emerging through new consortia. On the sidelines of the conference, defence ministers from France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Sweden, and the UK signed a letter of intent for the European Long-range Strike Approach (ELSA). This project aims to develop “deep strike” missiles and attack drones with ranges exceeding 500km, filling a critical gap in Europe’s independent arsenal.
Despite this momentum, structural squabbles remain. High-profile projects like the FCAS fighter jet continue to struggle with work-share disagreements, and the “buy European” vs. “open markets” debate persists. However, as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reminded delegates via giant screens displaying the latest Russian drone statistics, “weapons evolve faster than political decisions.” For a Europe caught between a hostile Russia and an erratic America, the time for political stalling has run out.
With inputs from agencies
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