The single biggest headline to track will be the Survey’s growth projections, especially after the current year’s surprisingly strong performance. In last year’s edition, the government had projected a 6.3% to 6.8% growth range, but recent data has exceeded expectations, with the advance estimate placing FY26 Gross domestic product (GDP) growth at 7.4%. That outperformance is likely to influence how the Survey frames the near-term momentum and the durability of India’s growth story.
However, the Survey’s outlook for FY27 may carry a more cautious tone as global headwinds intensify. Major international institutions such as the IMF, World Bank and the Asian Development Bank have pencilled in India’s growth at a lower band of 6.3% to 6.5% for FY27, reflecting a tougher external environment and growing uncertainties in global trade and investment flows. Against that backdrop, the government may choose to project growth in a range closer to 6.5% to 7%, potentially with a slight upward bias given the resilience seen so far, even as the second half of the year is expected to moderate.
Beyond the headline growth number, the Survey is expected to revisit the global macro risks that have been building over the past year. Economic fragmentation has been a recurring theme in recent editions, and the upcoming Survey could expand on how shifting trade alliances, supply chain realignments and protectionist tendencies are reshaping the external landscape for emerging markets like India. With global volatility remaining elevated, the Survey’s assessment of risks to exports, capital flows and overall demand conditions will be closely watched.
The document is also likely to provide cues on the government’s reform and competitiveness agenda, building on themes highlighted in the previous edition. Last year’s Survey had argued for a sharper push towards deregulation and a policy approach focused on removing frictions for businesses, with an emphasis on systematic deregulation across both the Union and state governments. The concept of Ease of Doing Business 2.0 was positioned as a framework to improve outcomes by reducing administrative barriers and streamlining processes, and this year’s Survey could offer an updated roadmap on execution and priorities.
Another important aspect could be the Survey’s commentary on India’s positioning in global manufacturing and trade dynamics. The previous edition had flagged China’s scale in global manufacturing, underlining how concentrated production capacity has become globally. With supply chains still in flux and countries recalibrating trade strategies, the Survey’s reading of India’s opportunity set—and constraints—in manufacturing, exports and investment could shape expectations ahead of the Budget.
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Markets will also track how the Survey addresses near-term pressures such as the impact of US tariffs, currency depreciation and the pace of foreign direct investment inflows. With the rupee under pressure and global capital flows sensitive to risk sentiment and interest rate differentials, the Survey’s take on external stability, investment trends and the policy levers available to sustain growth could set the tone for Budget 2026.
As the government prepares to lay out its fiscal and policy priorities on Sunday, the Economic Survey 2026 will serve as the first official signal on how New Delhi views the balance between growth momentum and emerging risks—and what it believes the economy needs next to stay on a high-growth track.
