The release calendar for big-ticket Indian films often hinges on multiple factors like competition, holidays, audience demand, and global markets. But sometimes, geopolitics enters the equation too.
The makers of
_Toxic_, starring Yash, recently decided to push the film’s release to June, reportedly due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, a region that has traditionally been a strong overseas market for the actor.
With Dhurandhar now facing a clearer release window, questions have also emerged about whether the makers of the actioner should consider a similar move or stay put.
In exclusive conversations, trade analysts Taran Adarsh and Girish Johar shared their insights on whether the decision to delay Toxic was the right call, and what it means for Dhurandhar’s box office prospects.
Why the Middle East matters for Toxic
According to Taran Adarsh, the Middle East remains a crucial market for Yash, especially after the massive popularity he gained following KGF.
Speaking exclusively, Adarsh explained that the region has a significant audience for South Indian films and for Yash in particular.
“The Middle East is a huge market for Yash. There is a large South Indian population there, and even otherwise,
after _KGF 2_, there has been a huge demand for Yash’s movies,” he said. “That is one of the reasons why they have postponed the release date.”
The delay, therefore, appears to be a strategic decision aimed at protecting the film’s international box office potential.
Trade analyst Girish Johar also believes the decision to push Toxic was logical, though for reasons beyond just the Middle East situation. He pointed out that both films target very similar audiences.
“To be very honest with you, yes, it was the right call,” Johar said about Toxic delay. “Both films belong to the same genre and have very similar target audiences.”
According to him, both projects are likely to receive adult certification and appeal to the same demographic segments.
“The genres, the target groups, even the censor certification, everything was very similar. Dhurandhar would have had a stronger hold in the northern market, while Toxic would have dominated the southern belt. With so many similarities between the two films, it made sense for Toxic to move ahead,” he explained.
Should Dhurandhar also delay its release?
While the move might make sense for Toxic, Adarsh believes the same logic does not necessarily apply to Dhurandhar.
The analyst pointed out that the first film in the franchise did not release in the Middle East either, yet it still performed exceptionally well in other markets.
“The first part had not released in the Middle East. So yes, there was some loss of revenue, but it was compensated by other markets,” he said. “This is a separate film, and whether it gets censored there or not we will know later. But even if it’s a deferred release in that region, people will still watch it.”
In other words, the Middle East may not be a decisive factor for Dhurandhar’s performance.
An open field at the box office
With
_Toxic_ moving out of the clash, Dhurandhar may now enjoy a significant advantage at the box office.
Adarsh believes the absence of competition could translate into massive opening numbers.
“It is an
open ground for _Dhurandhar_ now. There will be no screen sharing, no sharing of prime shows in multiplexes or single screens,” he said. “It’s a cakewalk. It’s going to be a huge, earth-shattering, record-smashing, historic Day 1 number for Dhurandhar.”
Johar believes the absence of competition could significantly boost
_Dhurandhar_’s box office prospects, provided global conditions remain stable.
“If everything remains normal, we are expecting a holistic box office for Dhurandhar. There is no doubt about that,” he said.
In fact, he predicts an extraordinary opening weekend. “I am expecting a weekend of at least Rs. 300 crore. It’s an extended weekend, so the collections could go beyond that.”The lack of competition could allow the film to dominate screens and maximise its opening weekend potential.
However, Johar also sounded a note of caution about sky-high expectations.
“When expectations are extremely high, there is always a risk. If the film does not match those expectations, it can backfire,” he noted.
He added that the first Dhurandhar had built its success gradually through strong word-of-mouth rather than explosive opening numbers, something that ultimately worked in its favour.
The only wildcard: the global situation
Despite the optimism, Johar stressed that the only major uncertainty remains the geopolitical situation.
“If the war spreads beyond the Middle East, to Europe or North America, then things could change,” he said. “But I don’t think that is likely.”
For now, the trade appears confident that Dhurandhar can capitalise on the clear release window.
As Johar put it, a big success would also be a much-needed boost for the industry. “This is much-needed oxygen for the film industry.”
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