New Delhi:
The Congress is on course to win over 100 Lok Sabha seats – after winning just 44 in 2014 and 52 in the 2019 election. In 2009 the party – then heading the United Progressive Alliance – won 206 seats.
At 10 am the Congress-led INDIA bloc – formed in June last year to stop Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his BJP-led National Democratic Alliance from claiming a third term – was ahead in 212.
The NDA was leading in 299 seats; the ruling party had quickly surged past the halfway mark of 272 in early leads as counting began (starting with postal ballots) this morning.
What Happened In 2014?
In 2014 the Congress – then led by Rahul Gandhi – faced the much-vaunted ‘Modi wave’ and slumped to a massive defeat, losing 162 seats and dropping nearly 9.3 per cent of the vote share.
The 2014 election saw the emergence of the Hindi heartland – the belt of Hindi-speaking states from Gujarat and Rajasthan in the west to Bihar and Jharkhand in the east, and down to Madhya Pradesh.
The BJP swept these states 10 years ago en route to winning 336 of the nation’s 543 seats.
On its own the saffron party won 282 seats.
The NDA won 73 seats in UP, 41 in Maharashtra, 31 in Bihar, and 27 in Madhya Pradesh. It also swept Gujarat’s 26, Rajasthan’s 25, Delhi’s seven, Himachal Pradesh’s four, and Uttarakhand’s five seats, and won 12 of Jharkhand’s 14, 10 of Chhattisgarh’s 11, and seven of Haryana’s 10 seats.
The Congress won just two seats in UP – the party strongholds of Amethi and Raebareli. The party picked up only six seats across the rest of the belt, with its UPA partners contributing a further six.
What Happened In 2019?
Five years on the BJP eked further ahead, winning 303 seats on its own and 353 with allies.
Once again the Hindi belt was key to beating the Congress’ hopes, with the party picking up 74 in UP, 39 in Bihar, and 28 in Madhya Pradesh. It also swept Gujarat, Rajasthan, Haryana, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, and Delhi, winning 77 seats from these states.
Adding Chhattisgarh’s nine and Jharkhand’s 11, the BJP amassed 238 seats from this belt.
The Congress, this time contesting under the leadership of Rahul Gandhi, slumped badly yet again, picking up just six seats on its own and seven with the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha.
More seriously, Mr Gandhi suffered a shock defeat from UP’s Amethi constituency; the Congress leader, looking to claim a fourth consecutive win, instead lost badly to the BJP’s Smriti Irani.
Mr Gandhi resigned from his position as Congress President after the defeat, and remained adamant that he would not reconsider his decision despite of wave of objections from Gandhi family loyalists.
2024 Lok Sabha Election: What Exit Polls Said
Two of 12 exit pollsters – India Today-Axis My India and India TV-CNX – believe the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance could amass as much as 401 seats. A third – News24-Today’s Chanakya – says it will land on the 400-seat mark, and three others – ABP News-C Voter, Jan Ki Baat, and News Nation – give Mr Modi’s election-winning juggernaut a maximum of 383, 392, and 378 seats.
READ | PM Modi Hat-Trick, Powered By South, Bengal, Odisha: Exit Polls
The BJP coalition is not expected to go below 281 in the race to win 272 seats.
The INDIA bloc – seen by many as a ragtag bunch of opposition parties – laughed off the predictions and vowed it will do what it set out to in June last year – defeat Prime Minister Modi and the BJP.
Congress boss Mallikarjun Kharge and Rahul Gandhi have insisted the group will win 295 seats.
The available exit poll data disagrees, although four give the bloc 150+ seats.
READ | Verdict On BJP’s ‘400 Paar’ Today. Can Party Repeat Congress Feat?
TV9 Bharatvarsh-Polstrat, Times Now-ETG, and Republic TV-P Marq say the INDIA group will win 166, 152, and 154 seats, while News Nation and ABP News-C Voter predict hauls between 152 and 182.
India News-D Dynamics and News 24-Today’s Chanakya are far less sanguine, predicting 125 and 107 seats only, while the others believe INDIA will score between 109 and 166 seats.
The BJP is, it therefore seems, well on its way to scoring 370 seats (the internal target), and is closer than many expected to the ‘abki baar, 400 paar’ target that includes its NDA partners’ success.
