China’s population dropped by another 3 million in 2025, with births falling to a record low despite expanded child-rearing incentives, underscoring deepening demographic and economic pressures
China’s population continued to decline in 2025. New government statistics released on Monday confirmed the fourth straight annual decrease. The country’s total population stood at 1.404 billion. This was 3 million fewer than the previous year. China remains the world’s second-most populous nation.
The number of babies born in 2025 dropped to 7.92 million. This marked a decline of 1.62 million, or 17 per cent. The data showed that a slight rise in births recorded in 2024 did not last. Births had already declined for seven consecutive years through 2023.
Measured by rate, 2025 recorded the lowest birth rate on record. The figure stood at 5.63 per cent, reflecting the number of births per 1,000 people.
Long-term demographic pressures
The figures highlight growing demographic pressure on the country. Many families point to the cost and pressure of raising children in a highly competitive society. These concerns have intensified amid an economic downturn that has strained household budgets.
China, like several other Asian countries, continues to face a declining fertility rate. The government last published an official fertility rate of 1.3 in 2020. Experts now estimate it to be around 1. Both are well below the 2.1 rate needed to maintain population size.
Policy shifts after one-child era
After decades of limiting families to one child, authorities raised the cap to two children in 2015. The limit was further increased to three children in 2021 as demographic challenges deepened.
Despite these changes, policy measures have delivered limited results. In July, the government announced cash subsidies of 3,600 yuan ($500) per child for families.
Incentives paired with taxes and exemptions
Alongside incentives, authorities have introduced measures aimed at influencing behaviour. In 2025, contraceptives, including condoms, were removed from a value-added tax exemption list. As a result, condoms are now subject to a 13 per cent tax that came into effect on Jan. 1.
At the same time, kindergartens, daycares and matchmaking services were added to the tax-exemption list to support child-rearing.
China was the world’s most populous country for decades. In 2023, it was overtaken by regional neighbour India.
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