Tomorrow (February 12), more than 127 million Bangladeshis will decide their fate as they vote for a new government. The election comes 18 months after student-led protests forced Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to flee the country and her position. Since then, an interim government, led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, has been in charge.
As excitement builds in Bangladesh over the elections, which are billed as the country’s first properly free and fair poll in more than a decade, India watches cautiously. That’s because what happens in the South Asian nation can have a deep impact on New Delhi.
As Michael Kugelman, senior fellow for South Asia at the Atlantic Council, told Al Jazeera, “India is hoping that this upcoming election will produce a government that is willing to engage with India and will not be influenced by the types of actors that India feels threaten its interests.”
The main players and their views on India
This election is a direct contest between the
Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) led by
Tarique Rahman, son of former prime minister Khaleda Zia, and a coalition led by the Islamist Jamaat-e-Islami. The new Nationalist Citizen Party (NCP), driven by Gen-Z activists under the age of 30, has aligned with Jamaat.
Sheikh Hasina’s
Awami League has been barred from contesting the polls.
Hasina’s absence at the polls is a concern for India. The former Bangladeshi PM has always been a supporter of India, with her administration having exceptionally close ties with India across security, trade, and transit.
In the absence of Hasina, India has tried to diversify its political engagement with Bangladesh, namely with the BNP. Modi sent a condolence letter following the death of Khaleda Zia last December. External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar also attended Zia’s funeral, where he met her son, Tarique Rahman.
Rapprochement is difficult owing to BNP’s prickly past with India. As the Institute of South Asian Studies (ISAS-NUS), Singapore, noted in one report, “The BNP’s rhetoric frequently depicted Indian initiatives as hegemonic and unequal, opposing transit arrangements and highlighting unresolved disputes over water and trade.”
Moreover, during
Zia’s regime, Dhaka reportedly provided sanctuary, training, and logistical support to insurgent groups such as the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA), NSCN (IM), and others.
And a look at BNP’s vision document reveals that the political party “is firmly committed to uphold independence, sovereignty and dignity of Bangladesh.”
It also warned of “strong resistance” if any other country interferes into the internal affairs of Bangladesh and poses any threat to the state security of the country. The document firmly stated its belief that across the border, “Bangladesh have friends and no master.”
“With respect to foreign relations, topmost priority will be given to the national interest of Bangladesh. The BNP will build up special relations with the Muslim Ummah and the neighbouring countries,” it said.
Meanwhile, the Jamaat has been at odds with India; its leaders have often made remarks that could be seen as anti-Indian. The Jamaat also has strong ties to Pakistan, India’s rival nation, and this could be a huge worry for New Delhi.
If either the BNP or the Jamaat wins the polls, there’s bound to be uncertainty in bilateral ties between Dhaka and New Delhi.
Security in the Northeast
There’s worry in New Delhi that a new government in Bangladesh could result in rising insurgency in the Northeast. Bangladesh shares a 4,000 km border with India, touching five northeastern states. Stability in Dhaka will directly affect cross-border insurgency management, border security, and migration flows.
As long as Hasina was in power, Dhaka took decisive action against militant groups and helped in curbing illegal border crossings. However, it’s unknown how the next government will work with India. There’s concern that security cooperation could weaken — complicating India’s internal security architecture in the northeast, according to experts.
India is also wary of Bangladesh’s future actions in and around the Siliguri Corridor, the narrow “
chicken-neck” land strip, connecting mainland India to the Northeast. India’s concerns stem from a series of developments in Bangladesh, including the reported revival of the WWII-era Lalmonirhat Airbase in northern Bangladesh, barely 135 km from the Siliguri Corridor, with active involvement of the Chinese government.
A cosying up to China, Pakistan
What is worrying to India isn’t just that Dhaka has distanced itself from India, but its outreach to countries that have historically difficult relations with India — China and Pakistan.
Many would argue that Dhaka and Beijing share old ties — the Asian giant has been a longstanding trade, investment, and defence partner for Bangladesh. However, India fears that China is seeking to exploit its deteriorating relations with Bangladesh. Last June, Bangladesh, China, and Pakistan held the inaugural meeting of a foreign secretary/vice foreign minister dialogue. This parallels a similar initiative between Afghanistan, China, and Pakistan. New Delhi views this as an effort to marginalise India in its own neighbourhood, reports Chatham House.
Moreover, China has stepped up its investment and diplomatic outreach in Dhaka, most recently signing a defence deal to build a
drone factory near Bangladesh’s border with India. Chinese Ambassador Yao Wen is also seen meeting Bangladeshi politicians, officials, and journalists, discussing infrastructure projects worth billions of dollars and other cooperation between the two countries.
China is also involved in a water management project along the Teesta River. This is of concern to New Delhi as India as Bangladesh and India have been engaged in stalled negotiations on sharing the river waters.
The more worrying aspect is Dhaka’s shift to Pakistan. Traditionally, Pakistan and Bangladesh have had strained relationships following the creation of Bangladesh in 1971. But the tides are changing, and the
two nations are seeing a reset.
In the recent past, visa rules and trade restrictions have changed. Additionally, direct air and sea links have been reinstated. There’s also deepening defence cooperation. Bangladesh is considering procuring the
JF-17 fighter aircraft, which is jointly produced by China and Pakistan.
As the Indian Express noted, “Who emerges dominant will do more than just form a government. It will influence how Bangladesh navigates its ties.
And it’s for this reason that the ballot in Bangladesh will be closely watched by New Delhi.
With inputs from agencies
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