The Secretary at the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation said base revisions typically result in sharper swings when databases change substantially. This time, adjustments have largely been in the 2–4% range. Globally, such revisions have varied widely — from negative 30% to over 70%, according to IMF assessments — but India’s changes have been comparatively contained.
Under the revised series, around 600 deflators will be used versus 180 earlier, alongside efforts to strengthen district-level GDP projections. The revision lowers the FY24 growth rate due to base year adjustments, and the FY23 GDP base has also been reduced. However, FY25 growth has been revised upwards by 0.6 percentage points, with real GDP growth remaining above 7% in each of the past three years.
Growth outlook and macro signals
The Statistics Secretary said the upward revision in the December quarter estimate has lifted full-year growth, underscoring the importance of robust expansion in achieving the government’s ‘Viksit Bharat’ objective of sustaining around 8% real GDP growth.
Chief Economic Adviser V. Anantha Nageswaran said economic performance remains resilient despite global uncertainties, with sustained non-inflationary growth in the post-pandemic period. Manufacturing growth over the past three years has been “exemplary”, while services growth has moderated slightly. Investment remains steady, and private consumption is resilient, supported by strong rural demand and improving urban trends.
He said the economy would need to grow at 7.3% or more in the fourth quarter to deliver 7.6% full-year growth, adding that high-frequency indicators do not signal a slowdown. Gross fixed capital formation at around 30% of GDP remains “very respectable” in the current global environment.
The CEA added that the impact of trade agreements, including a proposed EU pact and a US trade deal, would be felt more strongly in FY28, though merchandise exports could benefit from FY27. He projected growth closer to 7.4%, revising the Economic Survey’s 6.8–7.2% range upwards to 7–7.4%.
India is expected to cross the $4 trillion mark in FY27, with nominal growth projections for that year raised to 11%. Officials said the revised GDP framework does not alter the fiscal consolidation path, even as the FY26 fiscal deficit target has been marginally revised to 4.5% from 4.4% earlier.
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