Whenever the base year changes, the way growth is calculated also changes — and that can alter the headline numbers.
Ahead of the official release, the CNBC-TV18 poll — still based on the old GDP series — suggests real GDP growth of 7.6% for the third quarter of FY26. That is lower than the 8.1% recorded in the previous quarter, but still a healthy number.
Nominal GDP growth, however, is expected to be weaker at 7.85%. The gap between real and nominal growth is unusually narrow because inflation was very low during the quarter — roughly 0.8%. With limited price rise, nominal growth does not move much higher than real growth.
For the full year, the poll pegs real GDP growth at 7.6%, slightly above the government’s First Advance Estimate of 7.4%. Nominal GDP is expected at 8.4%. Ideally, policymakers prefer double-digit nominal GDP growth, as it supports tax collections and corporate revenue growth. By that yardstick, the projected 8.4% looks somewhat subdued.
Some analysts believe the final number could edge closer to 8%, especially given stronger auto sales and improving high-frequency indicators. But for now, the consensus remains around 7.6%.
There is an important caveat. These estimates are based on the old series.
When the new series is released, it will include revised data for FY24, FY25 and FY26. A change in the base year can alter the size of the economy in earlier years. For instance, if the economy’s size for a previous year is revised upward, the growth rates for subsequent years could also shift.
February 27 may therefore bring more than just a routine data release — it could reshape the headline growth narrative.
