American grandmaster Fabiano Caruana has shared his predictions for the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament, naming R Praggnanandhaa and Hikaru Nakamura as main favourites while also backing other contenders like Wei Yi, Anish Giri and others.
American grandmaster Fabiano Caruana has shared his thoughts on the upcoming 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament, which will decide the next challenger for reigning World Champion Gukesh Dommaraju.
Caruana, who has been called one of the favourites by top players like Arjun Erigaisi, Hans Niemann and Nodirbek Abdusattorov, believes the Candidates will be very close this year as he also named several top contenders.
“Of course I want to win, that’s the only goal in the Candidates. But I see it as a very close affair. Many people think there are a few clear favourites, and maybe if you go strictly by ratings that makes sense. Ratings are objective. Still, I believe this tournament is a very close affair,” Caruana told Sagar Shah of ChessBase India.
Caruana placed India’s R Praggnanandhaa among the top favourites. Caruana said his ability to win elite tournaments makes him a serious contender, even though he might not be in his best form currently.
“I would put Pragg quite high among the favourites. He hasn’t had the best six months since the Sinquefield Cup, but last year he showed he can win top tournaments. That to me elevates him more than the current ratings. But, we should also put some stock into recent form. I mean, it’s it’s hard to say. I would definitely put Pragg amongst the favorites. I don’t know if I would put him at number one, but definitely amongst the favorites,” he said.
He also spoke about Andrey Esipenko and called him a dangerous opponent, but felt it is hard to call him a favourite because he has not won major events yet. “I respect Andrey Esipenko’s play very much but it would be hard for me to put him as a favourite just because he hasn’t won major events and because of rating. But I still think that he’s very capable. I find him a very dangerous opponent. So I wouldn’t be able to put him among the favorites, but I think he can definitely score well and also ruin some people’s tournaments.”
On Wei Yi, Caruana said the Chinese star is extremely strong and accurate but does not have many big tournament wins. He added that he would still place Praggnanandhaa ahead of Wei Yi in winning chances.
“Wei Yi is kind of difficult for me to judge because he’s so strong. Sometimes you see his games and the accuracy is incredible, he can understand positions almost perfectly. In terms of winning tournaments, he doesn’t have that many big titles under his belt. But he has the rating, a lot of experience against top players, and he has been at the top level for nearly a decade. He was already around 2700 when he was 15 years old. Personally, I have a good score against him, so maybe that biases me a little bit. Still, I would place Pragg ahead of him in terms of chances to win the tournament.”
Talking about Anish Giri, Caruana said, “It could be somewhat similar with Anish Giri. Although, I would probably give Anish slightly better chances than Wei Yi because of his experience at the top level. He’s a very strong chess thinker in general and is capable of coming up with effective strategies during a tournament. But the question is whether he can win enough games, which might be necessary in a tournament like this. That hasn’t really been his strongest suit. So I would probably place him slightly ahead of Wei, but still a bit below Pragg in terms of chances to win the tournament.”
Caruana described Matthias Blübaum as someone who can score well and spoil others’ chances. “Matthias Blübaum is one of those players who can ruin other people’s tournaments and potentially put up a very good score. However, when it comes to actually winning the tournament, his chances are probably more limited. Objectively speaking, I would place him at the lowest in terms of winning chances but that doesn’t mean he can’t perform very well.”
He was very positive about Javokhir Sindarov, saying the young Uzbek has a killer instinct and is on a hot streak. “Javokhir Sindarov can definitely win tournaments, he’s very dangerous and has that killer instinct. Like Pragg, he doesn’t have a lot of experience at this level, but sometimes experience isn’t everything. When I played my first Candidates, I also didn’t have much experience, yet I still had enough to fight for first place. He’s on a very hot streak right now. I probably wouldn’t put him at the exact same level as Pragg in terms of chances to win, but I’d rate him close, maybe somewhere in between, perhaps slightly higher than Anish’s chances.”
Finally, Caruana placed Hikaru Nakamura at the same level as Praggnanandhaa, calling them the two main favourites. “And Hikaru Nakamura I would put around the same level as Pragg. He has experience, and he knows how to win, and was close last time. Even if he’s not super active right now, we know his strength. So I’d say there are two main favourites, and then a few others like Javokhir, Anish, and Wei Yi, who are very capable of being in contention.”
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