We all loved the HBO series Succession that dealt with the family politics of the Roy family. Now, a real-life succession drama could unfold in North Korea after reports emerged that Pyongyang’s Kim Jong-un is likely to name his 13-year-old daughter, Kim Ju-ae, as his successor, sidestepping his sister, Kim Yo-jong.
Speculation of a real-life K-drama unfolding emerged after South Korea’s National Intelligence Service last week offered an assessment that a fourth generation of the
Kim family dynasty is in the making.
So, what’s going on? Are we on the verge of witnessing a Kim vs Kim battle?
Likely heir to Kim Jong-un
Last week, South Korea’s National Intelligence Service (NIS), the intelligence agency, told lawmakers that
Kim Ju-ae, believed to be 13 years of age, is nearing formal designation as heir. The timing of this is significant, as North Korea is preparing for its biggest political conference later this month, where Kim Jong-un is expected to set major goals and tighten his grip.
According to the NIS, the teenager has increasingly assumed a symbolic and political role consistent with succession training. The intelligence agency also noted that she made repeated public appearances at key military events and pointed to her prominent positioning alongside her father during on-site inspections.
Kim Ju-ae remained firmly in the shadows until 2022. She accompanied her father, Kim Jong-un, for the launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). At the time, photos showed the leader holding the hand of a young girl, chubby-cheeked with bangs and a long ponytail, against the backdrop of a towering missile.
In the years that followed, she has made a number of other appearances. Last September, the teen also made her first public foreign trip when she accompanied her father to
Beijing to attend the military parade to mark Japan’s defeat in World War II.
The South Korean agency, in its assessment, also noted that Kim Ju-ae’s visit to
Kumsusan Palace of the Sun — a symbol of hereditary succession — early this January, as well as expressing views on policy initiatives, suggests that the teenager has entered the stage of having been designated as successor.
Kim’s sister and a possible succession drama
However, Kim Ju-ae may face a direct challenge for North Korea’s seat of power from none other than her aunt,
Kim Yo-jong, said Rah Jong-yil, the former South Korean ambassador to the UK and deputy director of Seoul’s intelligence service.
The
38-year-old, also referred to as ‘the most dangerous woman in the world’, is the younger sister of the current ruler, Kim Jong-un. Since 2020, she has governed as the de facto Number Two royal in the hermit kingdom.
In the past, Kim Yo-jong has threatened to use nuclear weapons against South Korea. She has even made swipes at the neighbouring country; in one instance, she called the South Korean defence minister “a senseless and scum-like guy” and promised that the country would have “a miserable fate little short of total destruction and ruin”.
She has also made unsavoury remarks about other world leaders; she referred to former US President Joe Biden as an “old man with no future” after America stepped up support of South Korea.
Kim Hong-gul, the youngest son of former South Korean President Kim Dae-jung and a lawmaker-elect, has also noted in the past that Kim’s sister looked firmly in control when a delegation from Seoul visited Pyongyang as part of a summit between the leaders of the countries in 2018.
According to Jong-yil, she has significant political and military support within the Workers’ Party of Korea, and could pose a threat to her niece’s accession to power.
“It depends on the timing, but I believe if Kim Yo-jong believed that she had a chance of becoming the top leader, then she would take it,” Jong-yil, who also served as a national security adviser to the South Korean president, told The Telegraph.
“For her, there are no reasons to refrain from putting into effect her own political project,” he said, adding that a power struggle “is probable”.
Even a report published by 38 North, the website of the Washington DC-based Stimson Centre think tank, last December, noted that “there is also a high likelihood of a power struggle emerging between Kim Jong Un and his potential successor candidates”.
“In the immediate term, more politically established candidates, like Kim Yo-jong, are more likely to succeed in the event of Kim Jong-un’s sudden death or serious illness”, the report stated.
Other candidates, such as Kim Ju-ae or her siblings, believed to be two boys, “are still too young and unestablished to realistically be considered for succession in the coming five to 15 years”, it added.
Past power struggles in North Korea
A power struggle between Kim Ju-ae and Kim Yo-jong isn’t implausible to believe, considering North Korea’s past. Moreover, the battle is unlikely to be bloodless.
Two years after he took over from his father in 2011, Kim Jong-un had his uncle and mentor,
Jang Song-thaek, arrested on charges of committing “anti-party, counter-revolutionary, factional acts”. On December 12, 2013, Song-thaek was executed by a firing squad.
In February 2017, Kim reportedly had his half-brother,
Kim Jong-nam, seen as the future leader of North Korea, assassinated at Kuala Lumpur airport when VX nerve agent was smeared on his face. Two people were arrested and charged with the murder, but neither of them was from North Korea. Identified as Siti Aisyah from Indonesia and Doan Thi Huong, from Vietnam, the two women had been unknowingly groomed as killers by North Korean agents in the months previous. They told Malaysian police they thought they were carrying out a prank for a Japanese YouTube show.
But many believe that it was Kim Jong-un who got his half-brother killed, as he was a potential rival to his rule.
A lot can happen between now and the moment of succession. In fact, it’s unknown when Kim Jong-un will actually hand over power — he’s just 42 years of age, and could continue to rule just like his father, Kim Jong-il, did until the age of 70.
With inputs from agencies
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