The Bangladesh Nationalist party (BNP) led by Tarique Rahman has claimed a sweeping victory in the country’s first election since a Gen-Z uprising toppled the regime of Sheikh Hasina.
While results were still being tallied, India’s
Prime Minister Narendra Modi congratulated the party as well as its chief, Tarique Rahman, asserting that India will continue to back democratic Bangladesh.
“I convey my warm congratulations to Mr Tarique Rahman on leading the BNP to a decisive victory in the parliamentary elections in Bangladesh. This victory shows the trust of the people of Bangladesh in your leadership. India will continue to stand in support of a democratic, progressive and inclusive Bangladesh. I look forward to working with you to strengthen our multifaceted relations and advance our common development goals,” wrote the PM on X.
For India, the results in the Bangladesh elections truly mattered. After all, the two countries share ties that go back years. However,
relations between the two have plummeted since the ouster of Sheikh Hasina last July. Also, the two nations share a 4,000-km border in northeast of India.
Now, with Tarique Rahman poised to be the next prime minister of Bangladesh, questions are swirling as to what a BNP leadership means for New Delhi.
What has been BNP’s stance on India in the past?
With
Tarique Rahman’s win, many wonder if he would carry on the legacy of Khaleda Zia, who had an antagonistic stance against India.
In the past, the BNP hasn’t been known to be favourable to India. Under his mother,
Khaleda Zia’s leadership, Bangladesh and India has had tumultuous ties.
During Zia’s first term as PM between 1991 and 1996, India and Bangladesh’s relations were marked by cross-border insurgencies, water-sharing issues, and trade imbalances. In her last stint from 2001 and 2006, New Delhi accused her of sheltering anti-India terrorist groups and insurgent groups in the northeast. This came after her BNP joined hands with the right-wing Islamist party, Jamaat-e-Islami, in Bangladesh.
Zia even referred to insurgent groups – the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) and the National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB) – in India as “freedom fighters”. Zia once said at a public meeting in Bangladesh’s Feni district, “They are fighting for independence. We also fought for it, so we are always in favour of any independence movement.”
She also opposed overland transit and connectivity links with India. During her tenure as PM, she denied India transit rights through Bangladesh to the northeastern states, calling it an infringement on her country’s security and sovereignty.
She also accused her rival,
Sheikh Hasina, of being an Indian stooge, further affecting her and the BNP’s ties with New Delhi.
What Tarique Rahman has said about India?
However, what does Tarique Rahman think about India-Bangladesh ties? His party’s manifesto has already dropped hints. For instance, in a section called titled ‘Bangladesh Before All’, the party stated that it “is firmly committed to uphold independence, sovereignty and dignity of Bangladesh.” The document firmly stated its belief that across the border, “Bangladesh have friends and no master.” It added that Dhaka would not interfere in others’ internal matters and would not allow interference at home.
The BNP manifesto has declared that it would prioritise to end “border killings” by the Border Security Force (BSF) of India and take steps to claim a “fair share” of common rivers with India like Teesta and Padma. “Smuggling, trafficking and drug trafficking at the border will be strictly suppressed,” the BNP’s manifesto said.
The manifesto also announced that the party will have “zero tolerance” for terrorist activities and “will not provide shelter or support to any terrorist.”
Tarique Rahman had also publicly announced that if BNP is elected to power, Bangladesh would be a safe haven for all religious minorities, emphasising that “religion is individual, but the state belongs to everyone”.
Days before the polls, one of Tarique Rahman’s closest advisers, Mahdi Amin, also weighed in on India-Bangladesh ties from the BNP’s perspective. “I believe there are great opportunities to work together, not only within the neighbourhood, but for the wider world. If we work together in trade, industry, culture, education, security, and overall, there are areas of collaboration where we can all work together while serving the interests of all nations and ensuring that mutual benefit is protected,” he was quoted as saying to the Indian Express.
What about Bangladesh’s ties with China, Pakistan?
Many political pundits note that Rahman will continue to grow the country’s
friendship with China, a worry for New Delhi. Last June, Chinese Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs Sun Weidong met BNP secretary-general Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir.
Moreover, the BNP also shares a long history of having good relations with Pakistan. Professor Delwar Hossain from the International Relations Department at Dhaka University forecast, told Arab News, “For Pakistan, any political coalition — whether BNP or Jamaat — will be positive. For Pakistan, the new regime or new government is not the issue. The issue is what the (India) policy of the new government would be and to what extent it would actually support Pakistan’s view.”
Will Sheikh Hasina impact India-BNP ties?
However, many believe that the Hasina factor would play a big role in deciding how BNP-India ties play out.
BNP figures have publicly argued that her presence in India can damage bilateral ties. Tarique Rahman has framed it as a political reality Delhi cannot wish away, saying that if India “shelter[s] a dictator,” it will “earn the resentment” of Bangladeshis, as quoted in Business Today.
But extradition of Hasina is not an easy matter for India. The former Bangladeshi prime minister has old ties with New Delhi and has been a strong proponent. She has been accused by her former country mates of running a ‘pro-India’ government that focused on trade, transport, border security, and water-sharing agreements.
It’s a wait and watch for India now to see which way Tarique Rahman’s foreign policy tilts: towards India or away from India.
With inputs from agencies
