Bangladesh stands at a historic crossroads today as nearly 127 million voters head to the polls for the 13th parliamentary elections, the first since the dramatic collapse of Sheikh Hasina’s 15-year administration. Eighteen months after a student-led uprising paved the way for Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus’s interim government, the nation is attempting a democratic “reset.”
However, this transition is shadowed by a fortress-like security environment and deep-seated fears of institutional manipulation. With the once-dominant Awami League disbanded and barred from the contest, the political vacuum has ignited a fierce, bipolar rivalry between the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and the resurgent Jamaat-e-Islami.
The voting will begin simultaneously in 299 parliamentary constituencies across the country from 7:30 am and will continue until 4:30 pm. Voting in one constituency has been cancelled due to the death of a candidate.
A total of 1,755 candidates from 50 political parties and 273 independents are contesting in the election. The BNP has fielded the highest number of 291 candidates. There are 83 female candidates.
”All of you should exercise your respective voting rights consciously…,” Chief Adviser Yunus said in a message on Wednesday.
Yunus, who has promised to quickly transfer power to the elected government, urged the political parties, candidates and other concerned parties to maintain restraint, tolerance and democratic behaviour on the polling day.
“The countrymen, through this national election, will elect people’s representatives, who are competent, responsible and respectful of the people’s aspirations,” he said.
Mentioning that a free, fair, impartial and acceptable election is the foundation of a democratic state, he said the present interim government is fully committed to achieving this goal ultimately.
In a televised address to the nation, Chief Election Commissioner AMM Nasir Uddin called upon the voters to cast their votes freely. He urged political parties, candidates, and voters to maintain a peaceful and cordial environment. He said that as a natural outcome of the democratic process, victory and defeat must be accepted by all in a normal manner. Nasir earlier reaffirmed the Election Commission’s commitment to holding a free, fair, impartial and acceptable election, saying all preparations have been made to ensure a peaceful and credible election.
“The election will be completed as promised to the people,” he said while briefing international observers and media representatives in the capital.
He said that representatives from 45 countries and organisations, including election management bodies and international institutions, are observing the polls. “The participation of media and observers will play a significant role in ensuring maximum transparency and public trust in this election,” he said.
Election Commissioner Abdur Rahmanel Machud said nearly 900,000 law enforcement personnel have been deployed to ensure security during the election, state-run BSS news agency reported.
Authorities have deployed Armoured Personnel Carriers (APCs) and Rapid Action Teams (RATs) across key areas of the capital. ”Security deployment is being made based on local sensitivity assessments,” Election Commissioner Abul Fazal Mohammad Sanaullah told a media briefing late Tuesday.
Police said they provided a list of risk-prone polling centres to the EC, which showed that out of 2,131 polling centres in Dhaka, 1,614 were risk-prone. However, the army said they have identified two centres in Dhaka city to be ”risky”.
For the first time, drones and body-worn cameras are being used for election security, Sanaullah said.
Around 25,000 body-worn cameras will be deployed on the field. Some of these are IP-based for live feed, while others will record locally. Moreover, for continuous monitoring, CCTV cameras have already been installed in over 90% of centres.” He said voting will be held in a total of 42,659 centres.
EC data showed that first-time voters made up some 3.58 per cent of nearly 127 million voters.
Masud on Wednesday said the results of the general elections and the referendum will be announced without much delay.
“The voting atmosphere is very good. A festive mood prevails. We are working in a well-planned manner. I hope the results will be published without significant delay,” he told reporters.
For the first time, nearly 800,000 expatriate Bangladeshis, who have registered with the poll body, will be able to vote through an IT-based postal ballot system.
Opinion polls have positioned BNP as the frontrunner, with its chief Tarique Rahman, back from 17 years of exile in the UK, leading the charge for forming the next government.
Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami chief Shafiqur Rahman on Wednesday said that his party would work to build “strong, respectful and mutually beneficial” relations with India if voted to power.
Analysts flag uncertainties
Leading political analysts on Wednesday expressed skepticism as Bangladesh is set to hold general election on Thursday under an interim regime in a changed political landscape, with some cautious about “uncertainties” and “manipulation” over polling.
Bangladesh will hold its 13th parliamentary elections on Thursday – the first since the ouster of prime minister Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League in massive student protests in August 2024.
The centre-right Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) pitted against its longtime ally, far-right Jamaat-e-Islami, in the absence of now disbanded Hasina’s Awami League in the election described by Interim government chief Muhammad Yunus in his last nationwide address overnight as the best and most historic election.
“But uncertainties remain over what kind of election it will be,” said prominent economist and political analyst Debapriya Bhattacharya, who headed a major committee of the outgoing interim administration on the corruption of the ousted Awami League regime.
Asked if Yunus’ promise of a “new settlement for a new Bangladesh by pushing a reset button,” Bhattacharya said and added, “but the gap is being seen” in the candidate selection process, doubts about voter participation and old practices – money, muscle and influence – again becoming dominant.
Yunus might have an aspiration, but there is a gap in “aspiration and capability and we are feeling that gap every day,” Bhattacharya, the founding executive director and currently a distinguished fellow of leading think tank Centre for Policy Dialogue, said.
“There are still many uncertainties: Will everyone be able to vote freely? If they do, will their votes be properly counted? So, we cannot judge until the entire process is over,” he told PTI.
Bhattacharya said the interim government knew that authoritarian power concentration within the ruling party and “family-based politics” had crippled the state – yet they did not address this structurally.
Leading TV talk show host and executive director of Centre for Governance Studies (CGS) Zillur Rahman echoed the sentiment as he said most people expected the election to see the end of the interim government, which could not deliver its promised reforms.
“My fear centres around what would be the scenario of the election day and post election period,” he said.
Rahman said despite its stigmas since 1971 – opposing Bangladesh’s independence from Pakistan – Jamaat was able to create a space largely, “visibly with interim government’s backing and western support for geopolitical reasons, using its regimented party structure.” “But if the voter turnout is high, BNP could win but if it is low, Jamaat could benefit,” Rahman told PTI.
Explaining the BNP weakness, a former BNP lawmaker preferring anonymity said, BNP’s new chairman Tarique Rahman’s “family oriented politics” could be a disadvantage for the party as his physician wife and lawyer daughter are portrayed as important figures giving Jamaat an edge.
“(Yet), I think, the people of Bangladesh have not turned so crazy to vote for a party (Jamaat) which was opposed to the very foundation of the country,” pointed out Sabir Mostafa, political affairs writer and former chief of Bangla service of BBC and Voice of Bangla services.
But, he said, the issue of “election manipulation” remained as a real fear factor. Most analysts, however, said the disbanded Awami League, despite its current political wilderness, commands a huge support and their role would largely influence the voting.
Hasina, who is in exile in India since her ouster, encouraged her party supporters and activists to boycott voting, but most analysts said a significant segment from her lot would cast their ballots because of ground level realities, including security concerns.
According to newspaper reports, local Awami leaders, who were exposed to persecution for the past 18 months, appeared on BNP election campaign stages chanting their party’s “Joy Bangla, Joy Bangabandhu” slogans and extending support for BNP candidates at places.
In some other areas, they were trying to woo Jamaat while in both cases they sought to ensure security of their life and livelihood in the post August 5, 2024 period, the media report said.
The analysts, however, said a large number of Awami League supporters would boycott the voting being led by a sense of disfranchisement.
Jon Danilowicz, former deputy head of the US mission in Dhaka, called the election as a “real test” of the country’s political class.
“The real test of Bangladesh’s political class will take place on February 13. Will they be able to accept the verdict of Bangladesh’s voters and play their respective roles in helping to build a new Bangladesh? If not, then the odds of history repeating itself will rise,” Danilcowicz, who still keenly follows and comments on Bangladesh’s political affairs, said in a post on X over the weekend.
With inputs from agencies
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