In Sunday’s election, Thailand’s People’s Party is seen as the voters’ favourite, but it is uncertain whether it will be able to form a government. The party’s reformist agenda —particularly proposed changes to the lèse‑majesté law— has put it on a collision course with the royalist elites.
The People’s Party is seen as the voters’ favourite in Thailand’s election on Sunday, but it is uncertain whether it would be able to form a government.
The People’s Party’s reformist agenda —particularly its proposed reforms to the lèse‑majesté law— has put it on a collision course with the royalist elites.
The People’s Party is the latest iteration of the reformist Future Forward Party, which was dissolved by the Constitutional Court in 2020. Its successor, the Move Forward Party, was blocked by the military‑appointed Senate from forming a government in 2023 and was dissolved by the Constitutional Court in 2024.
Despite lagging in the surveys, Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul is seen as a probable winner as he has a reputation as a dealmaker.
In any case, no party is expected to secure a majority in the 500‑member lower chamber and smaller parties are bound to be crucial in forming a coalition government. That is where Anutin’s dealmaking skills and deep connections to the monarchy and royalist institutions could benefit him.
People’s Party leads in surveys but faces troubled road
Surveys have put the People’s Party in the lead. It has become popular among young and urban voters with its reformist agenda and mastery of social media.
The People’s Party was backed by 36 per cent of respondents, the ruling party Pheu Thai by 22.1 per cent, and Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul’s Bhumjaithai by 18.9 per cent, according to a survey by Suan Dusit University.
Another survey by the National Institute for Development Administration showed 34.2 per cent support for the People’s Party, 22.6 per cent support for Bhumjaithai, and 16.2 per cent for Pheu Thai.
In the last election in 2023, the Move Forward Party won 151 of the 500 seats, Pheu Thai won 141, and Bhumjaithai won 71.
While the People’s Party is likely to have an advantage at the ballot box, it could struggle to strike a coalition deal. At the same time, the party’s reformist agenda could lead to another ban.
Senate veto may be over but Constitutional Court’s sword hangs over People’s Party
In 2023, the military‑appointed 200‑member Senate blocked the Move Forward Party’s attempt to form a government.
In 2024, however, the Senate’s composition and powers were changed. The Senate can no longer veto government formation.
But the Constitutional Court could still outlaw the People’s Party because the party’s leader, Nattapong Ruengpanyawut, has doubled down on his reformist agenda, maintaining that the party remains committed to its proposed reforms to the lèse‑majesté law.
In 2024, the Constitutional Court ordered the dissolution of the Move Forward Party after ruling that the party’s proposed changes to the lèse‑majesté law amounted to the destruction of the constitutional monarchy of Thailand and were therefore unconstitutional.
As the incumbent leader, Bhumjaithai’s Anutin is both politically savvy and well connected with royalist allies, he could be the most likely winner in the end even if the People’s Party wins the most seats.
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