Talks advance at India Energy Week as New Delhi eyes long-term fuel security and Ottawa pushes for trade reset
Canada and India are close to sealing a 10-year uranium supply agreement valued at around $3 billion, with the deal likely to be signed during a proposed meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Canadian counterpart Mark Carney in March, Forbes reported on Sunday, citing sources from both sides at the recently concluded India Energy Week, held in Goa, India, last week.
Negotiations are at an advanced stage, with finer details being ironed out ahead of a heads-of-state engagement in New Delhi, the report said.
A spokesperson for India’s Department of Atomic Energy told Forbes that the value of the potential long-term contract would be “in the region of $3 billion.”
Cameco at the heart of the deal
According to the report, at the centre of the proposed agreement is Cameco Corporation, the Saskatchewan-based uranium giant and the world’s largest publicly traded uranium company. Cameco is the majority owner of the Cigar Lake mine in northern Saskatchewan — regarded as the world’s highest-grade uranium mine and operational since 2014.
Since May 2022, Cameco has held a 54.547 per cent stake in Cigar Lake, with Orano Canada owning 40.453 per cent and TEPCO Resources holding the remaining 5 per cent.
Cameco told Forbes it would update markets “at the appropriate time.”
Canada is the world’s second-largest uranium producer, accounting for roughly 13-15 per cent of global output, according to International Energy Agency data. India, meanwhile, is the world’s third-largest energy consumer and is looking to significantly ramp up its nuclear power footprint as part of its long-term energy security strategy.
New Delhi has set an ambitious target of expanding nuclear generation capacity tenfold to 100 gigawatts by 2047 — the centenary year of India’s independence — making assured uranium supplies a strategic priority.
Political signalling and diplomatic reset
Speaking at a fireside chat during India Energy Week, Canada’s Minister of Energy and Natural Resources Tim Hodgson confirmed that Prime Minister Carney would meet Prime Minister Modi in March to advance trade discussions, including on uranium.
“I can confirm it is happening. Both sides are working on the finer details. Canada has the highest quality, purest concentration of uranium of any country in the world. We have historically supplied uranium to India,” Hodgson said.
He emphasised that Canada supplies uranium strictly for peaceful purposes and sees “a tremendous opportunity” to increase exports.
“That gives India an additional source of low-cost, high-quality uranium. That gives us another buyer. That makes India more secure, more resilient. That makes us more secure, more resilient. I’d say that’s a win-win,” he added.
The proposed pact also carries diplomatic weight, marking what Canadian officials described as a “reset” in relations following a sharp downturn in ties in 2023-24.
Bilateral relations had deteriorated after the Canadian government, then led by former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, alleged that individuals linked to Indian intelligence were involved in the killing of a Sikh separatist in British Columbia. The episode triggered tit-for-tat diplomatic expulsions and stalled trade negotiations.
In November, Carney initiated outreach to New Delhi in a bid to repair ties. The uranium deal is widely seen as one of the first tangible outcomes of that rapprochement.
Trade ambitions beyond uranium
Currently, bilateral trade between India and Canada stands at about $30 billion. Canadian officials have indicated that both governments aim to double that figure by the end of the decade, spanning sectors such as uranium, critical minerals and hydrocarbons.
For India, the potential uranium deal would diversify its supplier base and reinforce its clean energy transition plans. For Canada, it would secure a long-term, high-growth market in Asia at a time when global demand for nuclear fuel is reviving amid decarbonisation efforts.
If concluded in March, the agreement would signal not just a commercial breakthrough but also a strategic recalibration in India-Canada ties — from diplomatic friction to energy partnership.
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