Cuba is facing a deepening energy crisis, with oil supplies expected to last only 15 to 20 days after key shipments were halted. The situation has worsened as Trump has tightened pressure.
As US President Donald Trump steps up pressure to choke Cuba’s oil supply, the island has fuel reserves sufficient for only 15 to 20 days at current demand and domestic production levels, the Financial Post reported, citing data from Kpler. The shortage follows an apparent cancellation of a shipment from Mexico, Cuba’s sole remaining supplier, while the US has blocked oil deliveries from Venezuela.
The situation has heightened fears of widespread blackouts across the country.
Trump order tightens pressure
President Donald Trump on Thursday signed an executive order declaring Cuba an “unusual and extraordinary threat” to US national security. He also said tariffs would be imposed on all US imports from any country supplying oil to Cuba.
The move is expected to further strain Cuba’s fragile economy, which is nearing collapse as key oil supplies dry up under mounting US pressure.
Blackouts and rationing risk
Unless deliveries resume soon, Cuba could face sharp fuel rationing. Much of the country is already experiencing near-daily power outages.
While oil inventories have dipped lower in the past, Trump has said he intends to cut off oil supplies to the communist-run nation, describing the regime as “very close to failing”.
“They have a major crisis on their hands” if additional shipments do not arrive in the coming weeks, said Jorge Piñón, an oil expert at the University of Texas.
Oil imports plunge
Kpler data shows Cuba has received just 84,900 barrels of oil this year from a single Mexican shipment on January 9 — equivalent to around 3,000 barrels per day. This is sharply down from an average of 37,000 barrels per day sourced from all suppliers in 2025.
Mexico under pressure
The executive order is expected to place particular pressure on Mexico, which has acted as a vital oil lifeline for Cuba.
Until last month, Mexico supplied 44 percent of Cuba’s oil imports, while Venezuela accounted for 33 percent and Russia around 10 percent. Smaller volumes also came from Algeria, according to Financial Times figures.
Mexico defends pause in shipments
Mexico has temporarily halted oil shipments amid heightened rhetoric from Trump, who has sought to isolate the communist-ruled island.
President Claudia Sheinbaum said the pause was a “sovereign decision” and denied acting under US pressure. Mexico has reiterated its intention to continue humanitarian assistance to Cuba and offered to serve as an intermediary between Washington and Havana.
Long decline in external support
Cuba has long relied on foreign oil support, first from the Soviet Union and later from allies including Venezuela, Russia and Mexico.
Since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, that support has steadily declined, leaving Cuba increasingly vulnerable as it grapples with a deepening energy and economic crisis.
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