This article analyses whether Western politics is sliding towards racial division, tracing the issue from Reform UK’s Matthew Goodwin and his remarks during a Manchester by-election to comparable identity-fuelled campaign strategies across Europe and the United States.
While global headlines often focus on the grand theatre of presidential or general elections, the true temperature of a nation’s social fabric is often measured in its local by-elections and municipal races. In these smaller polls, away from the highly polished “center-ground” rhetoric of national leadership, a more visceral and sometimes exclusionary form of identity politics is surfacing.
In the early year of 2026, a series of local contests in the UK, Europe and the US have raised a troubling question: is the West’s political campaign becoming more defined by racial and ethnic gatekeeping?
The “piece of paper” doctrine: Defining Britishness
The recent by-election campaign in Gorton and Denton, Manchester has become a lightning rod for this debate. Reform UK candidate Matthew Goodwin, a prominent right-wing activist has sparked controversy by questioning whether people born in the UK from minority ethnic backgrounds are truly “British”.
Goodwin’s assertion—that “it takes more than a ‘piece of paper’ to make somebody British”—directly targets the 44% of Gorton and Denton’s population who identify as coming from minority ethnic backgrounds. According to the latest census data while nearly half the constituency is ethnically diverse, 79 per cent identify specifically as British. By casting doubt on the identity of UK-born citizens of Black, Asian or immigrant heritage, Goodwin’s rhetoric creates a tiered system of citizenship based on cultural or racial “integration” rather than legal right.
Some of the critics call the remarks racist and divisive while others including Green Party leader Zack Polanski have labelled this a “straight contest between hope and hate,” arguing that such rhetoric seeks to delegitimise the identity of millions of taxpayers who have known no other home.
Beyond the UK: A western trend of exclusion
This trend is not isolated to Manchester. Across the West, “smaller” elections are being used as laboratories for hard-right identity politics:
Portugal: In January 2026, the far-right Chega party successfully forced a presidential election to a second round for the first time in 40 years. Their campaign heavily leveraged a tripling of the immigrant population since 2018 to fuel a narrative of “lost control.”
Germany: Following the 2025 federal elections, the AfD (Alternative for Germany) secured 20.8% of the vote (152 seats), signalling a growing acceptance of ethnic nationalism that challenges the post-war multicultural consensus.
United States: As the 2026 midterms approach, local legislative battles have intensified over “show your papers” requirements. Research indicates that over 21 million US citizens do not have immediate access to birth certificates or naturalization papers, making these administrative hurdles a powerful tool for racialised voter suppression.
The numbers behind the rhetoric
The shift in rhetoric is backed by changing voter demographics. In the 2024 UK General Election, Labour’s share of the Asian vote fell by 13 points to 43%, as many minority voters felt alienated by mainstream parties. Conversely, Reform UK’s surge—gaining 21% of the vote among certain social grades—has been built on the “3.5% rule” of mobilization, where a vocal, motivated minority can shift the national discourse. When candidates in local races like Gorton and Denton suggest that legal citizenship is merely a “piece of paper,” they are not just campaigning for a seat; they are testing how far the boundaries of racial exclusion can be pushed in a modern democracy.
The thin line between identity politics and exclusion
Political scientists argue that liberal democracies must balance free speech and robust debate with protection of minority rights and civic inclusion. National identity is a legitimate subject of political discourse, but when candidates suggest that citizenship or “Britishness” is tied to race or cultural background rather than legal status, it raises questions about how inclusive these societies truly are.
As these local contests continue, they offer a window into how Western electorates are processing questions of belonging, identity and shared values and how campaign rhetoric can either bridge or deepen divides.
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