Why Iran’s protests are spreading and showing no signs of quelling – Firstpost

Why Iran’s protests are spreading and showing no signs of quelling – Firstpost

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What began as demonstrations over the rapidly falling value of the national currency of Iran has expanded into nationwide waves of unrest of anger against the Islamic Republic itself, resulting in a sharp crackdown from Iranian authorities and reactions from foreign governments.

The unrest has now reached all 31 provinces, affecting both major urban centres and rural towns. Despite repeated security measures, arrests, and communication shutdowns, protests have persisted.

How protests in Iran erupted nationwide

The latest round of demonstrations began in Tehran’s Grand Bazaar, where shopkeepers reacted angrily to the steep decline of the Iranian rial.

By December, the currency had plunged to around 1.4 million rials per US dollar, triggering sharp price rises and worsening living conditions. Inflation has surged, while ordinary Iranians struggle with shrinking purchasing power, job insecurity, and the long-term effects of sanctions.

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Human rights organisations report that the protests quickly expanded beyond Tehran. Cities and towns across Iran’s 31 provinces witnessed demonstrations, with people expressing anger over economic hardship, political repression, and restrictions on social freedoms.

According to the US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA), at least 34 protesters and four members of the security forces have been killed, while more than 2,200 people have been arrested.

Other figures
place the death toll at over 42, with 2,270 detained.

The demonstrations differ from the 2022-23 protests sparked by the death of Mahsa Amini, which were led largely by women and young girls. This time, many of the protesters are young men, although participation spans different age groups and social classes.

Analysts say the unrest reflects a broader breakdown in public confidence. “The collapse is not just of the rial, but of trust,” Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran Program at the Middle East Institute in Washington, DC told Reuters.

Iranian officials have acknowledged that economic pressures are real but have accused “networks linked to foreign powers” of fuelling the protests.

Iran’s top judge warned demonstrators that there would be “no leniency for those who help the enemy against the Islamic Republic.”

How Tehran responded with internet shutdowns

On the night of January 8, Iranian
authorities cut off internet access and international phone calls as protests intensified following a call for demonstrations by exiled crown prince Reza Pahlavi.

The shutdown left over 85 million people largely disconnected from the outside world.

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Protesters march on a bridge in Tehran, Iran, on December 29, 2025. File Image/Fars News Agency via AP

Internet monitoring firm Cloudflare and advocacy group NetBlocks both reported the outage and attributed it to government interference. Attempts to make phone calls into Iran from Dubai and other locations failed, affecting both landlines and mobile networks.

Iranian state television did not acknowledge the communication blackout in its early Friday broadcasts,
focusing instead on announcements related to food subsidies.

Such shutdowns have previously been followed by heavy crackdowns. By restricting online access, authorities limited the flow of images, videos, and real-time information about the protests.

Despite the blackout, demonstrations continued. At 8 pm local time on Thursday, neighbourhoods across Tehran echoed with chants.

Protesters shouted slogans such as “Death to the dictator!” and “Death to the Islamic Republic!” Some
praised Iran’s former monarchy, chanting, “This is the last battle! Pahlavi will return!”

Large crowds were visible in several cities before communications were cut.

Reza Pahlavi, whose father left Iran shortly before the 1979 Islamic Revolution, accused the government of silencing the population.

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“Iranians demanded their freedom tonight. In response, the regime in Iran has cut all lines of communication,” he said. “It has shut down the Internet. It has cut landlines. It may even attempt to jam satellite signals.”

He urged European governments to align with Washington in pressing Tehran. “I call on them to use all technical, financial, and diplomatic resources available to restore communication to the Iranian people so that their voice and their will can be heard and seen,” he added.

“Do not let the voices of my courageous compatriots be silenced.”

How these protests differ from previous ones

Despite the scale of the unrest, the protests remain largely leaderless. Analysts note that the absence of a unified opposition figure has historically weakened protest movements in Iran.

“The lack of a viable alternative has undermined past protests in Iran,” wrote Nate Swanson of the Atlantic Council.

“There may be a thousand Iranian dissident activists who, given a chance, could emerge as respected statesmen, as labor leader Lech Wałęsa did in Poland at the end of the Cold War. But so far, the Iranian security apparatus has arrested, persecuted and exiled all of the country’s potential transformational leaders.”

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While Reza Pahlavi has sought to rally support from abroad, it remains unclear how much influence he holds inside Iran.

Some demonstrators have voiced support for the former monarchy, but analysts say this may reflect broader anger with the current system rather than clear backing for Pahlavi himself.

Iranian authorities appear to be taking the threat of organised protests seriously. The conservative Kayhan newspaper published a video claiming that security forces would use drones to identify participants.

At the same time, Iranian officials have not publicly acknowledged the full scale of the demonstrations, even as unrest continued in many areas before and after Pahlavi’s scheduled rallies.

How protests turned violent

Violent incidents involving security personnel have also been reported. Iran’s judiciary news agency, Mizan, said a police colonel suffered fatal stab wounds in a town near Tehran.

The semi-official Fars news agency reported that gunmen killed two security force members and injured 30 others during a shooting in the city of Lordegan in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province.

In Khorasan Razavi province, a deputy governor told Iranian state television that an attack on a police station in Chenaran killed five people.

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The Revolutionary Guard later confirmed that two of its members had been killed in Kermanshah.

These incidents have been used by authorities to justify tougher security measures. While officials say they are open to dialogue over economic grievances, tear gas and force have been used in several locations amid street clashes.

How sanctions have deepened economic pressure in Iran

Iran’s economy has been under strain for years due to sanctions, mismanagement, and regional tensions. The 12-day war involving Israeli and US strikes on Iranian nuclear sites further worsened the situation, disrupting trade and investment.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described Iran’s financial condition as increasingly fragile.

“The Iranian economy is on the ropes,” he said while speaking at the Economic Club of Minnesota. He added that what had once been a relatively prosperous society was now struggling to maintain basic living standards.

“What had been an affluent society that still maintained a high standard of living is really crumbling, and a lot of that is through the sanctions,” Bessent said.

He also questioned how Tehran would fund the rebuilding of its nuclear programme amid economic constraints.

Rights groups say at least 25 people were killed during the first nine days of protests, which were triggered by soaring inflation and the collapse of the currency.

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How Trump & Co. have reacted to protests in Iran

The protests have drawn strong reactions from the United States, particularly from President Donald Trump. He has repeatedly warned Tehran against using deadly force on demonstrators.

“We’re watching it very closely. If they start killing people like they have in the past, I think they’re going to get hit very hard by the United States,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One.

He later reiterated his position in a separate statement. “What they’ve done is, in the past, they started shooting the hell out of [protesters]… and I said if they do that, we’re going to hit them very hard… So far, for the most part, they haven’t… The enthusiasm to overturn that regime is incredible.”

Earlier this month, Trump posted, “We are locked and loaded and ready to go,”

The comment referred to potential action if Iranian forces open fire on protesters, coming seven months after US and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities.

However, Trump has not committed to meeting Reza Pahlavi. “I’m not sure that it would be appropriate at this point to do that as president,” he said. “I think that we should let everybody go out there, and we see who emerges.”

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US Senator Lindsey Graham also issued an aggressive warning to Iran’s leadership and expressed support for the protesters. “To the Iranian people: President Trump is not Obama. He will stand up for you as you demand the end to your horrible oppression.”

“To the leadership of this state sponsor of terrorism, brutal, religious Nazi regime: if you continue to kill your own people to maintain your sick control over Iran, you’re going to wake up dead.”

“To the leaders of the regime: You run your mouth against President Trump at your own peril.”

“Thugs, dictators, bullies and killers who defy President Trump do not last long in this world.”

“Make Iran Great Again.”

Israeli Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu praised the protests, describing them as “a decisive moment in which the Iranian people take their futures into their hands.”

However, inside Iran, opinions remain divided over the idea of foreign military intervention. Even among critics of the Islamic Republic, many fear that outside involvement could worsen the country’s suffering.

Why this is a litmus test for Iran’s Supreme Leader

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, now 86, is facing one of the most challenging periods of his long rule. He has vowed that Iran “will not yield to the enemy,” even as protests continue and foreign pressure mounts.

A former Iranian official said there is no easy solution for Khamenei, whose decades-long strategies of building regional proxies, avoiding sanctions, and advancing nuclear and missile programs now appear increasingly strained.

Analysts say the clerical system has survived previous waves of unrest by combining repression with selective concessions, but this approach may be reaching its limits.

“Change now looks inevitable; regime collapse is possible but not guaranteed,” said Vatanka.

In countries such as Syria, Libya, and Iraq, long-standing leaders only fell after mass protests and possibly military intervention. Whether Iran will follow a similar path remains uncertain.

Prominent activist and Nobel Peace Prize laureate Narges Mohammadi remains in prison following her arrest in December. Her detention has become a symbol for many protesters of the government’s crackdown on dissent.

Her son, Ali Rahmani, said the current protests echo earlier movements.

“Since Dec. 28, 2025, the people of Iran have taken to the streets, just as they did in 2009, 2019,” he said.

“Each time, the same demands came up: an end to the Islamic Republic, an end to this patriarchal, dictatorial and religious regime, the end of the clerics, the end of the mullahs’ regime.”

Exiled opponents of the Islamic Republic
have called for continued demonstrations, believing the current moment could weaken the establishment. However, their influence inside Iran remains uncertain, and opposition groups themselves remain divided.

With protests spreading to every province, Iran’s leadership is confronting what many analysts describe as a crisis of legitimacy.

With inputs from agencies

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