The Supreme Court is expected to deliver rulings on argued cases when it takes the bench on Friday, and legal experts believe the fate of tariffs imposed under a 1977 emergency powers law could be among them. During arguments in November, several justices expressed doubts over whether the Trump administration had a valid legal basis to levy broad-based tariffs citing national security.
For India, the timing could not be more critical.
January deadline threatens summer export orders
Indian exporters, already grappling with US tariffs of up to 50% in the absence of a bilateral trade deal, warn that January is effectively a hard deadline. Buyers in the US are holding back orders for the upcoming summer season, particularly in apparel, footwear, leather and textiles — sectors that are highly seasonal and employment-intensive.
“Orders for the next season should have already been finalised by now,” said Ajay Sahai, Director General and CEO of the Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO). “Buyers have deferred decisions, hoping India will have a deal by the end of January. If that does not happen, they will move to other destinations.”
The risk, exporters say, is not just delayed orders but the potential for irreversible loss of market share.
“Once global companies move their sourcing away, bringing them back later becomes extremely difficult,” Sahai warned.
Christmas lost, summer at risk
The impact of the tariffs is already visible. According to a Bloomberg report, Indian exporters saw order volumes decline during the Christmas and New Year period, forcing several manufacturers to cut production.
Without relief, exporters fear US buyers could shift supply chains just as the summer shopping season approaches — traditionally one of the most important periods for Indian apparel and footwear exports.
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In labour-intensive clusters across Tamil Nadu, Uttar Pradesh, Haryana and West Bengal, industry executives say even a few weeks of delay could translate into job losses and factory shutdowns.
Supreme Court ruling seen as last near-term hope
Amid the uncertainty, exporters are pinning their hopes on the US Supreme Court stepping in.
“There is hope that the court intervenes and strikes down the tariffs. That would provide immediate relief,” Sahai said.
Former Commerce Secretary Ajay Dua, however, cautioned that even a favourable ruling would have limits.
“If the tariffs are struck down, the only option for the White House would be to appeal and try harder to justify them on national security grounds,” Dua said. “Merely having a trade deficit does not give the US President the authority to override Congress’s powers.”
Dua added that the national security argument itself may not withstand judicial scrutiny at higher levels.
Trade talks still unresolved
India and the US remain locked in negotiations on a trade deal, but no breakthrough has been announced so far. President Trump has publicly acknowledged tensions, saying Prime Minister Narendra Modi is unhappy with the high tariffs, while also claiming India has reduced oil purchases from Russia.
Data from Kpler shows India’s Russian oil imports fell to a three-year low of around 1.2 million barrels per day in December — nearly 40% lower than the June peak. The US administration has linked some tariff measures to concerns over Russian oil purchases.
Exporters say any rollback — even partial — could help, but time is running out.
‘Wait-and-watch’ turning into exit risk
Industry feedback suggests US companies are already preparing contingency plans.
“In non-seasonal segments, buyers may wait longer,” Sahai said. “But in footwear and apparel, where timelines are fixed, January is the cut-off.”
If orders shift to competing destinations such as Vietnam, Bangladesh or Mexico, Indian exporters fear the damage could extend well beyond this year.
For now, all eyes are on Friday’s Supreme Court proceedings — and on whether January brings relief or seals a painful reset for India’s exporters in the US market.
Watch the accompanying video for the full discussion.
