China on Monday launched its largest-ever military drills around Taiwan, marking a major show of force near the island even as Beijing appeared to calibrate the exercises to avoid a sharp escalation with the US.
China on Monday launched its largest-ever military drills around Taiwan, seeking to showcase its ability to isolate the island from external support in the event of a conflict, even as US President Donald Trump played down the threat posed by the exercises.
The drills mark Beijing’s first major show of force near Taiwan since April and appear carefully calibrated rather than overtly escalatory.
Calibrated show of force
While the scale of the war games is significant, analysts say Beijing has prioritised proportionality over maximum disruption.
The exercises are seen as an effort to demonstrate military capability and resolve without crossing red lines that could provoke a strong counter-response from Washington.
Timing linked to US arms deal
The timing of the drills is also notable. They come shortly after a major US arms sale to Taiwan earlier this month, making China’s military display largely unsurprising in the current geopolitical context. Observers say Beijing appears intent on signalling displeasure and deterrence, while avoiding steps that could spiral into direct confrontation.
‘Goldilocks zone’ strategy
A Singapore-based expert told Bloomberg that China was attempting to “hit the Goldilocks zone of inflicting pain and demonstrating resolve” — enough to pressure Taiwan and its supporters, but not enough to invite escalation from the US or its allies.
Message for a domestic audience
The drills may not be aimed only at external audiences. According to a Eurasia Group analyst, they could also be intended to reassure a domestic audience. Chinese President Xi Jinping’s intensified purge of senior military officials in recent months has raised questions about the People’s Liberation Army’s combat readiness, and large-scale exercises help project control, confidence and unity at home.
Scope of the exercises
China’s Eastern Theatre Command said troops, warships, fighter jets and artillery were deployed under the banner of the “Justice Mission 2025” drills. The exercises include live-fire operations, simulated strikes on land and sea targets, and manoeuvres to encircle Taiwan and block key ports.
Live-firing is set to continue on Tuesday across a record seven zones designated by China’s Maritime Safety Administration, making the drills the most extensive so far and closer to Taiwan than previous exercises limited to five zones.
Impact on Taiwan
Taiwan’s Defence Ministry said China also carried out an unannounced two-hour drill on Monday morning in waters east of the island. The Transport Ministry warned that more than 100,000 international air passengers would be affected on Tuesday, with around 80 domestic flights cancelled.
This is China’s sixth major round of drills around Taiwan since 2022, when then US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited the island. The exercises come amid sharper rhetoric from Beijing and regional tensions, including remarks by Japan’s Prime Minister suggesting a Chinese attack on Taiwan could prompt a response from Tokyo.
Responses from Taipei and Washington
Taiwan has rejected China’s sovereignty claims, maintaining that only its people can decide the island’s future. “Our armed forces prepare for the worst and must consider every possible scenario,” said Hsieh Jih-sheng, deputy chief of Taiwan’s general staff for intelligence, warning that live-fire drills pose risks not only to Taiwan but also to neighbouring countries.
President Trump said he was not concerned about the situation, citing his relationship with Chinese President Xi Jinping. “Nothing worries me,” he told reporters, adding that China has conducted naval exercises in the region for decades.
Rising military activity
The drills began 11 days after Washington announced an $11.1 billion arms package for Taiwan, the largest to date, drawing strong protests from Beijing. Analysts say China is sending a clear signal against what it sees as external interference, while increasingly blurring the line between routine military training and preparations for a potential conflict.
Taiwan’s defence ministry said 89 Chinese military aircraft, 14 naval vessels and 14 coast guard ships were operating around the island on Monday. The military has been placed on high alert and has launched rapid-response exercises to ensure readiness. Despite the tensions, Taiwan’s stock market closed up 0.9 percent.
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