Probably at his sarcastic best , the CEA observed, “In general we don’t hear too many murmurs when GDP data disappoints on the downside, it is only when the GDP growth numbers surprise on the upside we hear all these concerns being raised.”
The CEA was commenting on a newspaper article which raised concerns on the accuracy of the Q2 GDP estimate of 8.2%.
“Unfortunately all these under informed, half baked questions are left deliberately hanging so as to sow the seeds of doubt in people,” the CEA added.
Reflecting on the 25% growth contraction during Q1FY21 after the nationwide covid lockdown, Nageswaran said, “No one got up to question the methodology, the reliability of the numbers, the single deflator being used etc, all of them were kosher. Because the GDP data met their prayers or even exceeded their prayers because they want the GDP data to disappoint and when the disappointment was met there was no complaint about methodology.”
Similarly, giving the example of high WPI inflation depressing the services growth rate during FY22 and FY23, the CEA stated no one questioned if inflation was overstated or the deflator had negatively impacted service sector.
“We didn’t hear any such complaint at that time that India is understating its growth rate,” he said.
The CEA went on to observe that all estimation methodologies have limitations but we seem to be “particularly fond” of questioning our methods and less of others, somehow thinking that our methods are “inferior to others.” This also reflects our mind set that we need to change, Nageswaran said.
The CEA spoke at a stakeholder outreach conducted by the Ministry of Statistics as a run up to the new base year rollouts from February 2026.
