GTRI data shows that India’s exports to the US declined 20.7% overall during this period, falling from $8.8 billion in May to $7.0 billion in November. The sharpest drop was recorded in the early months, with exports plunging 37.7% between May and September to a low of $5.5 billion. From this trough, exports rebounded by 27.3% between September and November.
According to the think tank, nearly 85% of India’s exports to the US in November came from sectors that first saw a decline and then staged a recovery. Gems and jewellery exports reflected this pattern clearly, dropping from $500.2 million in May to $202.8 million in September before rising to $406.2 million in November.
ANI quoted GTRI as saying that similar trends were observed across key sectors such as electronics, including smartphones, machinery, vehicles and auto components, pharmaceuticals, textiles and garments, carpets, mineral fuels, organic chemicals, plastics, rubber products, fish, dairy items, and edible fruits and nuts.
“India’s exports fell more sharply during the low-tariff phase and then recovered partially under the higher-tariff regime. This pattern is unusual,” GTRI said.
Exports weakened between May and September despite relatively lower tariff rates during most of this period. Tariffs stood at 10% in May, June and July, remained at 10% from August 1 to 6, rose to 25% between August 7 and 27, and increased to 50% from August 28 onwards. September, the first full month under the 50% tariff, marked the lowest export levels.
However, exports showed a partial recovery between September and November even as the 50% tariff continued. GTRI attributed the initial decline to uncertainty around impending tariff hikes, which led US buyers to delay orders and reduce inventories.
“Once the higher tariffs became certain, exporters and US buyers began adjusting by absorbing part of the cost, renegotiating prices, and shifting towards products that were less affected or hard to substitute,” the report noted.
GTRI added that supply-chain adjustments and inventory restocking ahead of the US holiday season supported shipments in sectors such as electronics and machinery. However, it cautioned that the recovery remains fragile and is driven by short-term adjustments rather than a lasting improvement, ANI reported.
