Amid global uncertainty triggered by President Donald Trump’s decisive tariff policies that have already jostled markets since last year, the year 2026 is to look out for the election results that would inevitably have an impact on markets around the world
The year 2026 is stacked with elections. From Japan to Hungary to the US, the world will witness major polls that hold the capacity to shift geopolitics and global businesses.
While countries like Uganda, Portugal and Costa Rica have already been through their election cycles, Japan will be the latest to go to the polls this weekend.
Amid global uncertainty triggered by President Donald Trump’s decisive tariff policies that have already jostled markets since last year, the year 2026 is to look out for the election results that would inevitably have an impact on markets around the world.
Japan
Japan will vote on February 8 in an election that can loosen fiscal purse-strings in the developed world’s most indebted nation, on a debt-to-GDP basis.
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has pledged major changes to the taxation system and spending policies that have already sent jitters through global markets.
Among Takaichi’s poll promises is the suspension of the country’s 8 per cent consumption tax on food and non-alcoholic beverages for two years. Government data says that this move would result in an estimated revenue shortfall of 5 trillion yen every year.
Investors expect pressure on Japanese bonds to continue, and some analysts reckon 10-year yields will hit 3 per cent this year, from just over 2 per cent now.
Bangladesh
After two years of tumultuous politics that saw deaths and destruction, Bangladesh is all set to finally vote this month. The country has plunged into a deep economic crisis since the ouster of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in 2024.
Private investment has stagnated at approximately 22–23 per cent of GDP, while the country’s tax-to-GDP ratio remains critically low at less than 7 per cent. This revenue collection lags significantly behind regional peers like India, which sits at 12 per cent, and Pakistan at 10 per cent. Furthermore, it falls well below the 15 per cent threshold that many economists consider the bare minimum for a nation to reliably fund essential services and avoid constant financial instability.
Hossain Zillur Rahman, an economist, told Al Jazeera that interim leader Muhammad Yunus has been “extraordinarily inattentive to economic distress at [the] household level” and to “engaging with the business community to jumpstart the economy”.
US
The US November mid-term elections will determine who controls Congress and are an important test for Trump.
Affordability is a hot-button issue and the White House has scrambled to offer proposals to ease cost-of-living concerns, including capping credit card interest rates.
Polls show that Americans are broadly unhappy with Trump’s handling of the economy. The incumbent’s party historically suffers during mid-terms and the president recently conceded that his Republican Party could struggle to retain its tenuous grip on Congress.
Hungary
Hungary’s elections will be the opposition’s best chance in years to end Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s 16-year-long run. And the country’s opposition party, Tisza, is already ahead of Orban’s right-wing Fidesz.
Cost-of-living concerns are high, and Orban has used fiscal giveaways to assuage voter worries.
Fitch Ratings cut Hungary’s credit rating outlook to negative last year, citing “significantly worsened” public finance projections that reflected new measures in advance of the election.
With inputs from agencies
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